A new study on future climatic changes in India by the Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore, has indicated that north India is likely to experience more rise in temperatures than south India. In Maharashtra, Marathwada and Vidarbha will experience higher levels of warming while coastal areas, including Mumbai, will be similar to the south. The study, reported in the latest issue of Current Science journal of the Indian Academy of Sciences, Bangalore, has made long-term climate projections for India.

The four-member team used historical climate data between 1880 and 2005 and made projections for temperature and precipitation (rain) from 2005 to 2100 under different scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. IIT-Bombay and Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Divecha Centre for Climate Change, IISc, were also part of the study.

If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated, mean warming in India is likely to be in the range of 3.3-4.8 degree Celsius by 2080s while rainfall is likely to range between 6% and 14% during the same period.

"When temperature rises, the water holding capacity in the atmosphere also rises, resulting in an increase in rainfall along with rise in extreme rainfall events, which can be catastrophic for the local population, infrastructure and economic activities," said Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi, lead author and national environmental sciences fellow at the Centre for Sustainable Technologies.

The study is likely to be part of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change due in 2014. "These new climate projections should be used in future assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation planning," the study concluded.