Trinamool Congress is likely to sail to victory and can even cross the 2011 tally of 184 seats in the elections to the 294-seat Bengal Assembly, a preliminary report by Intelligence Bureau to the union home ministry has predicted.
The report also highlighted that the much-discussed CPIM-Congress electoral understanding is yet to pick up in the state.
The report gave a maximum five seats to the BJP and even included the possibility of the party drawing a blank in Bengal. It currently has one seat with Samik Bhattacharya representing the party from Basirhat Dakshin constituency (North 24 Parganas district).
The report mentioned that 20 to 25 seats may go to the Congress and 60 to 70 to the Left Front. The report was sent just after the polls were announced and is based on the present ground reality. A series of similar reports are to be filed as campaign picks up and polls draw near.
“This is just the first report based on the ground reality right now. However, during campaign, when the seat sharing pact is settled finally, the scenario may change,” a senior officer of central IB told HT.
“In North Bengal where there are only 54 seats there will be a straight fight. The opposition is expected to gain seats. However, the ruling party is expected to sweep South Bengal,” the officer added.
The report highlighted that Mamata Banerjee remains a popular leader compared to the opposition which is yet to come up with a credible face. It also mentioned that the party organisation of Trinamool Congress remains strong in the districts as compared to the opposition.
The report also mentioned that the proposed Left-Congress alliance is yet to pick up in the districts and there is confusion regarding seat sharing. The Left Front is yet to come up with an acceptable leadership face among the masses.
“The alliance is yet to be formalised. People are confused regarding the final structure of the alliance as of now,” said the IB officer. “Interestingly, wherever BJP will gain, it will be at the expense of the opposition and will favour Trinamool Congress. The BJP has beefing up its organisation and may get a maximum of five seats. But there is a strong chance of the party not winning a single seat,” the officer added.