Although monsoon is likely to arrive in Madhya Pradesh just a little late this time, it should not impact the total rainfall expected during the rainy season (June to September), suggests data.
A close look at the data of onset date of monsoon and corresponding seasonal rainfall in Bhopal during the last decade, received from the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC), suggests that the rainfall amount is quite delinked to the onset date (see box).
(Normal monsoon onset date for Bhopal is June 13 and normal seasonal rainfall for Bhopal is 109 cm)
For example, in 2012, monsoon arrived in Bhopal on July 4 — almost 20 days of delay. But the seasonal rainfall received here in 2012 was 113cm against the normal 109cm.
On the other hand, in 2008, monsoon reached the capital on the expected date on June 13, but the rainfall was only 70cm in the entire season.
The Met director Anupam Kashyapi said seasonal rainfall is not dependent on time of arrival of monsoon, but the way it shapes up during the season. “It is about monsoon breaks and wet spells. If we have many breaks, the rain is deficient and if we get consecutive wet spells, normal or excess rain might be received,” Kashyapi explained. The dry and wet spells depend upon several meteorological conditions, he added.
This year, according to the current forecast, monsoon is likely to strike MP by June 16 and cover the entire state by June 26. Bhopal is expected to be covered by June 20. However, there is likelihood of 10% deficient rainfall in the state, it has been predicted.
Due to delayed start of pre-monsoon showers, the rainfall deficiency in state is 44% as on June 12. The deficiency is 100% in 10 districts and quite high in places such as Bhopal (98%). Indore, however, has received 8% more rain than expected by this time of season.
Kashyapi said once monsoon strikes, the current deficiency would be covered. Even the 10% deficiency is recoverable, but for the expected impact of El Niño that might lead to considerable rain deficiency in September.