While a spectre of drought looms over most parts of country with prediction of deficient monsoon, the situation is likely to be somewhat better in central India including MP where 90% rainfall of long period average is expected, the Regional Meteorological Centre (RMC) here has said.
The state normally receives 99cm of rainfall during a normal monsoon, thus about 89cm of rainfall is expected this year in Madhya Pradesh.
For Central India, 19 per cent additional or deficient rainfall is considered normal and thus the 90% prediction falls in category of normal monsoon, director of RMC Anupam Kashyapi told HT.
El Nino impact is on the rise and would be at maximum during months of August and September, thus the rainfall during these two months is likely to be considerably less compared to June and July, the director said.
El Nino is the rise in sea surface temperature in Pacific Ocean that impacts monsoon current in Southeast Asia.
Monsoon is likely to strike Madhya Pradesh (at its southern tip) between June 12 and 14, almost on time, if the monsoon onset over Kerala is by June 5 as expected currently, the director said at a press conference on Wednesday.
The entire state is likely to be covered between June 18 and 20, he said. The normal onset of monsoon in Madhya Pradesh is by June 12/13.
The onset date would be re-evaluated once monsoon actually strikes Kerala, the director said.
No reason to panic
The MeT director has said that though rain shortfall of about 10% is expected in state, there is no reason to panic as the challenge could be faced with proper planning and strategy.
For this purpose, the MeT office has suggested sowing of short and medium duration crops, sowing of paddy crop only if the farmers have facility of two to three irrigation cycles. Alternately, maize, soybean and groundnut crops may be sown, the department has said.
Kashyapi said that even last year, the state had experienced rain shortfall, but the crop was not impacted much.
East MP had received 29% deficient rain and west MP was 12% deficient rain in 2014. Overall, the rainfall in state was around 20% deficient.
West MP likely to get 78.8cm (9cm less than normal) while East MP is likely to get 94.6cm (11cm less than normal) rainfall in monsoon of 2015 (June to September)
In West MP, the rainfall in months of June, July, August and September is likely to be 9.48cm, 26.2cm, 27.7cm and 15.3cm respectively
In East MP, the rainfall in months of June, July, August and September is likely to be 12.0cm, 31.2cm, 33.2cm and 18cm respectively