Bank pegs India growth at 8.5-9% | business | Hindustan Times
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Bank pegs India growth at 8.5-9%

business Updated: Feb 22, 2011 21:57 IST

Terming India's economic recovery as robust, the World Bank on Tuesday projected the Indian economy to grow by about 8.5-9% in the current and next financial years.

The estimates are almost in line with those made by the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC), which expects that the GDP would expand by 8.6% this fiscal and 9% in 2011-12.

In its India Economic Update, the Bank said that strong headline GDP growth and quarter on quarter results indicate that "economic recovery is robust".

"Looking forward, GDP growth looks set to regain the pre-crisis trend of around 8.5-9% in this year and the next (FY 2011-12)," the Bank said.

In the first six months of this fiscal, the economy rose by 8.9%.

According to the World Bank, the overall wholesale price inflation is likely to come down to 7% by March-end.

Inflation is likely to decline further in the next fiscal, "although uncertainty over international commodity prices persists," it added.

The PMEAC had on Monday revised upwards its inflation forecast to 7% by March-end from earlier estimate of 6.5%.

"The RBI is likely to continue its policy of cautious rate hikes in a highly uncertain environment," the Bank noted.

While inflation has become broader based, capacity utilisation, industrial production, import, and credit indicators do not point to overheating, it said.

"The signals are, therefore, not clear whether core inflation is caused by more general demand pressures, which would best be addressed with more aggressive policy tightening, or by second round effects of earlier food and commodity price shocks, for which the current monetary policy stance is likely to be adequate," the multilateral lender said.