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Economic growth could slip to 5.5% this fiscal: RBI survey

business Updated: Jan 28, 2013 20:22 IST
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India's economic growth could fall to 5.5% this fiscal before seeing gradual recovery next year, a RBI-sponsored survey said on Monday.

The latest estimate, coming a day ahead of the RBI quarterly monetary policy review, is lower than the government's revised annual growth estimate of 5.7%.

The median growth projection has been revised downwards to 5.5% on the back of slower growth for 2012-13 fiscal, said the 22nd round of survey by professional forecasters of RBI.

While the government expects the economy to grow by 5.7% in the current fiscal, the RBI had earlier projected a growth rate of 5.8%.

The RBI sponsored survey said that there would be a gradual recovery in 2013-14 and the economy could clock a growth of 6.5%.

The country's economy grew at over over 8% for two consecutive years before declining to 6.5% in 2011-12 fiscal.

"Growth in 2012-13 is likely to fall below the reserve Bank's baseline projection of 5.8%," the RBI said in its third quarter review of Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments.

It said due to supply and infrastructure bottlenecks and slack in external demand, the industrial output is contracting. This has also impacted the economic growth in the first half of the current fiscal which stood at 5.4%.

"Even though a modest recovery may set in from Q4 of 2012-13 as reforms and efforts to remove structural constraints get underway, sustaining this recovery through 2013-14 would require all-round efforts in removing impediments for business activity."

"With global recovery likely to stay muted in the near term, closing the output gap in India would be challenging," the RBI said.

To boost growth, the government has taken a host of fiscal measures including liberalisation of FDI in multibrand retail, amendment of Banking Regulations Act and setting up of Cabinet Committee on Investment to accord fast track clearances to large value projects.

"It is imperative that reform measures continue to be executed efficiently and domestic inflation recedes further to support sustainable recovery in India," RBI said.