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India’s $2-trn tryst

business Updated: Mar 05, 2011 00:56 IST
HT Correspondent

The Indian economy would grow to $2 trillion in 2011-12 joining the elite league of the US, Japan, Germany, China, UK, France and Italy as the mass of economic activity shifts to Asia.

Budget 2011-12 has forecast that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) at the end of March 2012 would reach Rs 89,80860 crore or nearly $2 trillion at an exchange rate of Rs 45 to a dollar.

India also is set to outpace China as the world’s fastest growing major economy in 2011 after the latter lowered its economic growth target to 7% over the next five years to ease pressures on environment.

The Indian economy is forecast to expand at between 8.75% and 9.25% in 2011-12, riding on a domestic consumption and investment boom despite a high inflation.

“In many ways the renewed dominance by 2050 of China and India, with their much larger populations, is a return to the historical norm prior to the Industrial Revolution of the late 18th and 19th centuries that caused a shift in global economic power from Asia to Western Europe and the US — this temporary shift in power is now going into reverse, ” John Hawksworth, chief economist, PricewaterhouseCoopers, UK had said in a report titled World in 2050 released in January.

Experts, however, said India will only fully realise this great potential if it continues to pursue growth-friendly economic policies of the last two decades.

Prudent fiscal policy stance, extending its openness to foreign trade and investment, increased investment in transport and energy infrastructure, and improved educational standards are likely to hold the key for India’s growth prospects.
“Even with a GDP of $2 trillion, we will remain one third of China and one seventh of the US,” said Rajiv Kumar, director-general, FICCI.