India would have the fastest economic expansion among Asian countries and its gross domestic product is expected to grow by 6.3% in 2015, according to Morgan Stanley forecasts of global economies.
The Indian rupee's exchange rate to USD would be at Rs 62.2 by end of next year compared to Rs 62 in the current quarter (Q4 this year), according to a presentation made at the Morgan Stanley's Annual Asia Pacific Summit held from November 12-14 said.
It is seen at Rs 62.5 in the first two quarters of next year and Rs 62.3 in the third quarter of next year. Comparative to other Asian GDP growths, India would have the fastest economic expansion, it said.
India's gross domestic product is expected to grow by 6.3% in 2015, up from 5.3 this year, it said.
"We are constructive on the INR from the outlook perspective," Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's chief Asia economist, told PTI. Strong capital inflow and the current account deficit under- 2% would add upward pressure on the rupee.
Reforms are providing confidence in the Indian economy growth. The Indian government's policy action to improve business environment and lower oil prices are among the factors supporting the GDP growth, Ahya said.
Structural reforms related to land, labour and tax supporting the economic growth would support economic growths in the coming years. The risk would be any disruption to execution and delivery of reforms as well as a slowdown in exports, he pointed out.
On imports, the lower oil prices have been helpful and supporting the economic growth. Oil imports were down at 4% of the GDP now from 6% in 2012. "It is obviously helping the recovery process," Ahya said.
Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley has forecasted a sub-par global growth at 3.5% in 2015, up nominally from 3.1% this year.
In Asia, China's GDP is forecasted to contract to 7.1% in 2015 from 7.3% in 2014. Asian GDP, excluding Japan's, would grow to 6.3% in 2015, up by a small proportion from 6 per cent this year.
Japan's GDP growth would be stagnant at 0.8% in 2014 and 2015. Some 1,700 delegates including representatives of 300 global corporations are attending the summit.