India’s merchandise exports will be between $265-268 billion in 2015-16, significantly lower than $310.5 billion in the previous fiscal, stung by the sharp erosion in commodity prices globally, according to Assocham.
The country’s outbound shipments stood at around $314.4 billion in 2013-14, $300.4 billion 2012-13, and $306 billion in 2011-12.
“Indian exports had achieved a landmark of $300 billion in 2011-12 for the first time making the country a sizeable player in global exports.
“But the fall this year is going to be very steep,” the chamber said.
Bulk of India’s export basket comprises commodities, be it engineering goods (mostly iron ore/steel and other metals), or petroleum products, which have been hit in value terms.
However, the entire export drop is not coming around on the back of fall in demand for Indian goods only, it said.
The global merchandise economy has moved away sharply from a very high cost, ultra bullish commodity situation to a bearish and low cost situation where demand relates mainly to the actual consumption which is rather low key, Assocham pointed out.
The pricing power as was being mirrored in the futures trading markets all over the world turned out to be rather myopic and has totally disappeared, it said.
“Thus, there is no sentiment build-up around commodities and the demand is actually restricted to the real consumption. Nobody is willing to bet for futures and thus there is a meltdown in prices,” its analysis noted.