The Indian economy could witness an upsurge, and be back on growth trajectory by end of third quarter this year as compared to the expected upturn in developed economies of the world by second quarter of 2010, Indian Institute of Management(IIM-A) Director Samir Barua, said on Tuesday.
“We might witness an upturn and restoration of normal GDP growth say of 8 per cent against the projected sub six per cent presently, as early as in third or fourth quarter of 2009, but will be subjected to fulfillment of few pre-conditions,” Barua said, while addressing a gathering on Central Excise Day here.
“Pre-dominantly four major factors such as pragmatic monetary policy by RBI, less fractured parliament, normal monsoons, and government’s spending on infrastructure will play decisive role in India’s growth rate coming back to normal,” he said.
“Firstly the outcome of general elections in May will be crucial. If the ministry is less fractured than what it has been in the past then we might see better growth,” Barua said.
“The second important factor in the context of Indian economy is the monsoon. If the monsoons turns out to be normal then I expect the growth to be restored to normal of 8 per cent rather than sub six per cent,” he said.