India's exports are projected to grow by about 22 per cent to $216 billion in the current fiscal on the back of recovery in global trade, the Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council said on Friday.
The PMEAC expects exports to overshoot the Commerce Ministry's target of $200 billion, which was set against $176.6 billion achieved in 2009-10. It projects merchandise exports to go further up to $ 254 billion in 2011-12.
Without elaborating, however, the council said the country's exports face uncertainty.
"The anecdotal evidence from export businesses on their order position and trade enquiries suggests that a stronger growth may be possible, but there is some uncertainty about this," it said.
With contraction in global merchandise demand, India's exports declined by 4.7 per cent to $176.6 billion in 2009-10.
However, in the first two months of the current fiscal exports grew by 35.7 per cent.
Global trade has seen recovery in 2010 and the outlook looks bright.
The International Monetary Fund has projected that exports, at constant price, from emerging and developing economies would increase by 10.5 per cent in 2010. Exports from the advanced economies are also expected to rise by 8.2 per cent.
According to the March estimates of the World Trade Organisation, the global trade would grow by 9.5 per cent (at constant prices)in 2010.
Giving a segment-wise outlook for India's outbound shipments, the panel said growth of petroleum products would be slightly higher than that of imports, at 24 per cent and 16 per cent in 2010-11 and the next fiscal respectively.
The value of exports of gems and jewellery would show expansion of 25 per cent while export of non-oil, non-jewellery products would rise by 20 per cent in the current fiscal.
Imports would increase by 18 per cent to $354 billion, leaving the country with a trade deficit of $138 billion, the council said.