PMEAC expects Q2 GDP growth at 6.1%, others say 6.2 to 6.6 pc | business | Hindustan Times
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PMEAC expects Q2 GDP growth at 6.1%, others say 6.2 to 6.6 pc

The Prime Minister's economic advisory panel expects the economy to grow by around 6.1 per cent in the second quarter, the same as in the preceding three months, due to the impact of a weak monsoon on agriculture.

business Updated: Nov 29, 2009 11:33 IST

The Prime Minister's economic advisory panel expects the economy to grow by around 6.1 per cent in the second quarter, the same as in the preceding three months, due to the impact of a weak monsoon on agriculture.

However, other economists peg the growth rate in the range of 6.2 per cent to 6.6 per cent against a healthy 7.7 per cent in the corresponding period last fiscal.

The data for the second quarter GDP growth will be released on Monday by the Central Statistical Organisation.

"The second quarter may reflect to some extent the impact on agriculture. Therefore, the growth rate may not necessarily exceed very much over 6.1 per cent which we saw in the first quarter...I think so, it will be around 6.1 per cent," PM's Economic Advisory Council (PMEAC) Chairman C Rangarajan told PTI.

If this happens, the PMEAC's projection of 6.5 per cent growth rate in the current fiscal will require the economy to expand by around 7 per cent in the second half of this fiscal.

"We forecast 6.5 per cent for the year as a whole... It will have to be around 7 per cent (in the second half)," Rangarajan said.

He said industrial and services growth will be stronger in the second half and will make up for the impact of the weak monsoon on agriculture in the third quarter.

However, HDFC Bank Economist Jyotinder Kaur said she expects the economy to grow by 6.6 per cent in the second quarter mainly due to industrial growth. "But, agricultural growth is likely to shrink by 3.5-4 per cent," she said.