Hopes of a strong global economic revival sprang anew, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicting that the global economy is beginning to pull out of a recession, but stabilisation is uneven and the recovery is expected to be sluggish.
According to a new report by IMF, the world has begun to recover from recession but sustaining the recovery would require shifting focus to exports for the US and domestic demand for Asia.
IMF’s chief economist Olivier Blanchard said the global recession had “left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come.”
“The recovery has started. Sustaining it will require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries,” Blanchard said.
Latest macroeconomic data from world’s leading economies have shown signs of recovery.
The gross domestic product (GDP) of two of Europe’s largest economies, Germany and France, grew by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter, beating official forecasts.
Japan’s GDP grew 0.9 per cent in April-June.
The Federal Reserve last week said that the US economy was stabilising and that it would gradually scale back its massive effort to pump liquidity into the creaking financial system.
In India, factory output rose 7.8 per cent in June, the strongest growth in 16 months, triggering hopes of a strong economic rebound in the coming months. Manufacturing, which accounts for 80 per cent of overall industrial output, grew by 7.3 per cent.
But the real story lay in the consumer durables sector that grew by a healthy 15.5 per cent reflecting a rise in consumer demand and spending on goods such as televisions and refrigerators.
The risk of a deficient monsoon hurting industrial output growth through lower rural demand for consumer goods, however, appears real.