Opinion | Mistakes Modi and Rahul could make after the assembly elections, and should not
Both parties need to understand that arrogance has no place in Indian politics and hubris will extract a cost.
There is one thing that everyone can agree on about the assembly election results this week: the game is on for 2019. Even one year ago the re-election of Narendra Modi as prime minister was an absolute given. Now while he continues to have the advantage, he has no certainties or guarantees; the race is open.
Both the BJP and the Congress could fumble in their interpretation of this verdict. Here are critical mistakes that either could make — and shouldn’t.
An anxious Modi government may be tempted to dial up Hindutva instead of dialling it down. In four months it cannot create a new narrative to help it reset. Nerves could lead to an even shriller campaign on polarising issues like beef politics or the construction of a temple at Ayodhya. This would be a mistake. The blanks drawn by Yogi Adityanath, who is the most visible Hindutva mascot for the BJP, is a health warning. There are diminishing returns in toxic, strongman bigotry and the BJP is already experiencing that.
The Congress attempt at playing Hindu-lite is also fraught with risk. Yes, there is definite merit in rebooting the sanitised template of Nehruvian secularism and finding a pluralistic language of faith in which to communicate. The embrace of visible Hindu iconography and symbols appears to have worked for the party in shrugging off the anti-Hindu caricature. But this needn’t be stretched into commentary that is casteist — for instance, the remark about Rahul Gandhi’s ‘sacred thread’. And the Congress certainly shouldn’t be defensive about Muslim voters, as it was in Gujarat.
The Modi government will be buoyed by the Supreme Court all clear for Rafale. While the court has punctured the opposition’s capacity to make the defence deal a major electoral issue, the government should not be emboldened to proceed on its collision course with the RBI. There is great damage in the growing perception that Urjit Patel quit, not so much over interest rates or even disagreements over how to handle NPAs (Non Performing Assets), but because the government wants to use the reserves to fund a populist, voter-friendly scheme. The central bank’s emergency reserves cannot become a source of proxy campaign funding.
The Congress will be tempted to see itself as the natural leader of the anti-BJP coalition after wresting three states in the heartland from the BJP. At this stage, this claim, while understandable, would only be counterproductive. The impressive sweep by K Chandrashekar Rao (popularly known as KCR) and the TRS in Telangana is a reminder that regional parties may not pivot automatically to a Congress-led front. In fact, it’s worth recalling that in the past Mamata Banerjee and KCR attempted to mobilise a non-Congress, non-BJP front. It is also significant that neither Mayawati nor Akhilesh Yadav sent representatives to the meeting of opposition leaders steered by Chandrababu Naidu and Rahul Gandhi. The opposition would benefit from a pre-poll alliance without getting into who will lead it. The outcome in Karnataka is a reminder that numbers alone don’t determine realpolitik.
The BJP’s instinct will be to sharpen personal rhetoric against the Gandhi family and the Congress. This may not go far. Voters admire old-style politics as we saw in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh gracefully conceded defeat and where Kamal Nath made it a point to go and personally meet Shivraj. These are old courtesies of politics that were the norm till politics post-2014 made them the exception marking a phase of unprecedented vitriol between the BJP and the Congress.
Both parties need to understand that arrogance has no place in Indian politics and hubris will extract a cost. Because it won the largest popular mandate of any single party in 30 years, the BJP allowed victory to go its head. The belief in one’s own absolute power is lethal in a democracy. There has been a peculiar environment of fear — one in which bureaucrats, journalists, corporate chieftains and even other members of the BJP have hesitated to function normally and openly. At some point, there will be a backlash to this and we are seeing its beginnings. The Congress needs to internalise that lesson as well. Rahul Gandhi alluded to it in his press conference where he sounded the right note of humility. That should stay whether or not political fortunes change. The Congress has especially had to contend with the label of elitism and privilege. Modesty would be its best instrument.
And finally, both parties should understand and accept the place of robust news media in a healthy democracy. That some prominent pro-government journalists are beginning to hedge their bets signals the problem with media partisanship to begin with. It’s much better to accept and engage with those you find tougher to slot in either camp. At least they won’t change with the wind.
Barkha Dutt is an award-winning journalist and author
The views expressed are personal