Leaders of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) believe that they will bag about 51 seats in Saturday’s assembly elections.
The party’s internal survey carried out between January 31 and February 1 says AAP is likely to end up with 51 seats. It predicts 15 seats for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and four seats for the Congress and others -- making the battle for Delhi a two-cornered fight.
Fifty-three per cent favour AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal for the Delhi chief minister’s post while 34% people want BJP’s Kiran Bedi. Just 7% want to see Congress’s Ajay Maken as the chief minister, says the survey.
Unlike last year, the survey has not been carried out by an external agency this year but by AAP volunteers.
In the best case scenario, the party gave itself 57 seats, the BJP 10 seats and Congress and others three seats. The worst case scenario sees the party getting 44 seats, BJP 20 seats and Congress and others six seats.
The four surveys that have come out in the last 10 days have all given AAP between 35 and 46 seats out of 70. A party that bags 36 seats can claim full majority in the Delhi assembly. Hindustan Times C fore survey predicted that the AAP would win between 36 and 41 seats.
AAP’s survey team randomly selected polling booths and went to every 10th house. 3,188 respondents were surveyed in 35 constituencies. It does not talk about each constituency separately. Since the survey was carried out only in odd-numbered constituencies, it did not include New Delhi or Krishna Nagar from where Arvind Kejriwal and Kiran Bedi are contesting, respectively.
“Our sample profile is similar to the citizen profile in Delhi. Those interviewed included 12% from rural areas, 15% from the reserved category, 13% Muslims and 17% from the upper middle class colonies,” said senior AAP leader and psephologist Yogendra Yadav.
Last year, the party’s internal survey carried out by a private agency Cicero projected that the party would get 32 seats. It had projected that the Congress would get 28 seats and the BJP 10. This year, the Cicero survey has projected that AAP will get 38-46 seats, BJP will get 19-25 seats and Congress 3-7 seats.