India’s southweast monsoon will be lower than previously forecast, the Met said on Tuesday. However, rainfall distribution, which is what actually impacts crops, is expected to be normal, Met chief Ajit Tyagi said.
According to revised forecast, monsoon rains are expected to be 95% of the long-term average of 50 years, down from the Met’s April forecast of 98%. Rainfall between 96-104% is considered normal monsoon.
“Don't go by the numbers, it is the distribution of the rains that matters for agriculture which we hope will be very good,” Tyagi said. Good distribution refers to rains that are evenly spread.
The lowered forecast could dent farm output and make the fight against inflation tougher in Asia’s third largest major economy. India, one of the world's top producers and consumers of rice, sugar and corn, relies on the June to September monsoon for agricultural output.