Will monsoon keep its date with Delhi? Met officials say it may not
Met officials say Monsoon has fallen short in meeting the deadline in some states. The scheduled date of arrival for Delhi is June 29, however, it may need a ‘push’, such as a depression over Bay of Bengal, to keep its date.delhi Updated: Jun 14, 2017 14:37 IST
The South-west Monsoon is trying hard to keep its date with the country’s capital.
While it has already failed to meet deadlines with some states in western and eastern India, officials of the meteorological department are hopeful that this week would be a ‘good one’ for the winds that help to advance the monsoon.
“Monsoon is advancing steadily. This week will be very good for the advancement of monsoon across some states in western and eastern India. On Monday, it reached both Mumbai and Kolkata,” said a senior official of the Indian Meteorological Department.
But if one goes by the scheduled dates of arrival of monsoon showers then it has fallen short in meeting the deadlines in some states.
Met officials are yet to say for sure when the monsoon will arrive in Delhi. It could be predicted with a greater degree of certainty only after the monsoon covers the central and western states as low-pressure areas might shift. But the monsoon appears to be on target to hit the capital around July 1
Deficient rain so far
■ In 2016, the monsoon arrived in Delhi on July 2
■ Delhi has received ‘deficient’ rain between June 1 and June 11 this year (-42%)
■ Delhi was supposed to receive around 7.7 mm of rain. It received around 4.4 mm
■ Delhi receives 636 mm of rain on average from June to September
“Going by the usual onset dates, the monsoon should have covered almost the entire Maharashtra, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, parts of Odisha and West Bengal by June 10,” said an official.
But while it arrived in Kolkata at least four days late, in Mumbai it was behind schedule by two days.
“Officially, it can’t be said that the monsoon is delayed. A monsoon can be declared delayed only if it fails to make its onset even after seven days of the scheduled date of arrival. We can now say it is near normal,” said the official.
The question that is now making the rounds is whether the monsoon will hit Delhi on time or would it get delayed. The scheduled date of arrival for Delhi is June 29.
“It is too early to predict. We can only predict that once it covers the west and central states. But the monsoon will need a push to keep its date with Delhi and other states in north-west India,” he added.
Experts said that systems such as a low pressure or a depression over the Bay of Bengal would help the monsoon to advance further over the eastern states.
“The advancing monsoon winds had slowed down over the past two to three days. But then it got a push because of a depression over the Bay of Bengal and advanced significantly over Maharashtra and West Bengal on Monday,” said the official.
If similar low pressures or depressions form over the Arabian Sea and it advances towards the Indian coast, instead of moving towards Oman, then it would help to drag the monsoon towards Delhi. Similar conditions were seen in 2013.
Last week the IMD had predicted that rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2017 southwest monsoon season (June to September) will most likely be normal (96%-104%).
Northwest India, which includes Delhi and NCR, would receive around 96% rain.