The Delhi BJP will launch extensive campaigning in around 30 assembly constituencies for the upcoming municipal polls, where the party’s internal assessment has identified significant presence of Poorvanchali and Dalit voters.
“Impressive” response to recently held meetings in Rohini, Bawana, and Najafgarh drove the party to evaluate 33 seats with at least 15% Poorvanchali and Dalit electoral population, a party insider said.
The Capital is estimated to have 40 lakh Poorvanchalis (population from Bihar, Jharkhand and Eastern Uttar Pradesh) — 25% of the total vote share. Traditionally, Poorvanchalis have voted for Congress but switched loyalty to Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) in the last two elections. BJP has been always been associated with Baniya and Punjabi population.
“Whenever the party has won on these seats, it emerged as the largest party, be it 1993 or 2013 assembly elections. We are getting positive response with Manoj Tiwari in the lead. Frequent activities in the recent days including Tiwari’s stay in slum bastis have indicated that the party has an edge in these areas,” said a party source.
The newly selected Delhi BJP chief, Manoj Tiwari, is also a Poorvanchali. In the 2013 assembly poll, Tiwari campaigned in 19 constituencies and the party won 14 seats, the source added.
Each assembly constituency comprises four municipal wards. Hence, the focus will be on nearly 130 wards. Together, the three municipal corporations in the city have 272 wards.
The party is also eying at least six constituencies which have 10%-30% Dalit votes. Northwest Delhi MP, Udit Raj, a known Dalit face is frequently seen with Tiwari in party functions these days, which was not the case earlier.
Following the assessment, the constituencies have been divided into five categories based on possible outcome — there is a strong possibility of success in nine seats; in two constituencies, the conditions are largely in favour of BJP; in 11 seats, it may lead; nine seats require a slight push to tilt election results in its favour; and only two seats have been pegged as requiring substantial campaigning.
“It is believed if we are able to manage momentum in these constituencies, the party will be in a comfortable position in municipal elections,” said a party functionary.
The survey says BJP may win majority of seats in the civic poll. “The Poorvanchali-Dalit combine may prove to be the game changer for the party in Delhi,” said a BJP leader.