Observing that the Congress and BJP would not be able to get a majority in the ongoing Lok Sabha polls, a US think-tank has predicted an intense political horse trading following declaration of results next month as both the parties would compete with each other to win the support of smaller parties.
"Congress appears to have a slight edge over the BJP in key states, but neither party is likely to win a clear majority of seats," Stratfor, a think-tank based in Texas said in its analysis on Indian election released after the first phase of polls were conducted across India.
Observing that the influence of these national parties has faded over the years while smaller regional and caste- based parties have proliferated, Stratfor said as a result, intense political horse-trading will ensue after the election.
"Both Congress and BJP therefore will need to throw all their efforts into cobbling together a coalition with smaller parties to have a chance at taking office June 2," Stratfor said, without explaining how it expected the new government to be formed on a particular date.
However, it said there is small chance that a Third Front could emerge in these elections should the communist parties link up with key regional parties to challenge Congress and the BJP.