The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to get 187 seats in the Lok Sabha - nine more than the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), a pre-poll survey by the India TV shows.
"The NDA has a minor edge over UPA, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may win 144 seats - nine more than the Congress. But if the UPA can bring back its former constituent - the Samajwadi Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and Lok Janshakti Party - its figure will reach 235," the news channel said on Sunday in a release based on the survey.
"On its part, the BJP (144) may be able to add 43 more seats from existing allies/constituents taking the tally of the NDA to 187. So, if the Fourth Front gets back to the UPA, the key would still lie with the Third Front constituents at 121," it added.
According to the survey, the UPA may then need 37 of them to break away to reach the magical mark of 272.
India TV editor-in-chief Rajat Sharma said this was the first time that a survey was done on-camera.
"More than 200 experienced reporters fanned across demographies, castes, religion and seats to emerge with this comprehensive and nuanced picture on the mood in the nation," Sharma said.
The channel said the survey was based on 50,000 interviews and data mining was conducted by an independent party.
Highlights of the survey:
- NDA (187) has minor edge over UPA (178); if UPA is without Samajwadi Party (30) and RJD/LJP (15)
- On its own, BJP (144) is marginally ahead of Congress (133)
- If after elections, Samajwadi Party (30), RJD/ LJP (15), Praja Rajyam Party (PRP) (6), PDP (1), Others (5) back UPA, UPA+ will have 57 more seats (235)
- 'Fourth Front' comprising Samajwadi Party, RJD/LJP, PRP, and PDP have 52 seats
- 'Third Front' (121) holds the key with BSP (26), TDP/TRS (14), Left (35), JDS (4), BJD (10), AIADMK 31, HJC (1)