For the first time, an opinion poll has predicted absolute majority for the BJP-led NDA.
Television news channel NDTV came out with a forecast on Monday, saying that the NDA would get 275 seats, while the magic number for forming government was 272 seats, against 111 of the Congress-led UPA. In February, the NDTV poll predicted 230 seats for the BJP-led alliance.
The poll, however, said the difference in vote-share between the Congress and the BJP was just 9% even though the saffron party would get 134 seats more than the Congress.
It said the BJP was the prime factor for the alliance reaching the magic figure as its tally would increase from 196 in February to 226 in April. On the other hand, the poll for the first time predicted less than 100 seats for the Congress.
The poll conducted for the channel by Hansa Research said if the elections happened in April, the NDA would cross the 272-mark comfortably.
On the other hand, the poll for the first time predicted less than 100 seats for the ruling Congress, the leading party of the UPA alliance. As a result, the alliance would get 111 seats down from 128 the UPA would have got in February, the poll said.
The poll said the BJP and its allies would get 50 seats in UP and 24 in Bihar, which together sent 120 MPs to Parliament. The BJP had 10 MPs from UP and 12 from Bihar in the previous term.
In UP, the BJP will gain at the cost of its rivals — the Congress, SP and the BSP — while in Bihar, its former ally Janata Dal (United) will be the hardest hit.
The BJP, however, is expected to lose seven seats in Karnataka, where the Congress is predicted to gain.
Although there was a difference of 134 seats between the Congress and the BJP, the poll said the difference in vote share between the two was just 9%.
The poll also said the AIADMK will gain in Tamil Nadu whereas Jagan Reddy will eat into Congress votebank in Seemandhra.