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HindustanTimes Mon,22 Dec 2014

NDA will be way ahead of UPA: Opinion poll

HT Correspondent, Hindustantimes.com  New Delhi, March 29, 2014
First Published: 22:39 IST(29/3/2014) | Last Updated: 10:29 IST(30/3/2014)

An ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll has predicted the NDA would win 236 seats in the 543-seat parliament, while incumbent UPA-II government is projected to win 92 seats.
 
The fresh projections said BJP would get 217 (in 2009 it won 116) seats. The Congress is projected to get only 73 (won 206 seats in 2009) seats, 133 less seats than 2009 seat position.
 
The opinion poll was conducted in 129 constituencies with 29,453 respondents between March 9-16. The margin of error, a statement said, was in the range of "±5%".
 
Non-UPA and non-NDA parties seem to be holding a key share of national vote bank, the poll showed. Left parties are likely to gather 29 seats, while others could get 186.
 
In UP, the BJP was forecast to win 40 of the 80 seats. The BJP could bag 26 of Madhya Pradesh's 29 seats and 22 out 26 seats in Gujarat.
 
The poll results showed the BJP would gain much in terms of the vote share in some big states.
 
In Bihar, the BJP was forecast to emerge as the largest party with 21 seats, while getting 19 of Maharashtra's 48 seats. In Kerala, the CPM is forecast to win 7 seats, while Congress could add 6 seats to its kitty out of the 20. Jayalalithaa's AIADMK is seen winning 19 seats out of 39 in Tamil Nadu. DMK gets 13.
 
AAP 'fall' in Delhi
 
In Delhi, the opinion poll has predicted a sharp fall in the vote share of giant-killer Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
 
The ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll – conducted between March 9 and 16, 2014 – predicted a vote share of 34 per cent in the elections, a drastic fall from 55%  vote share it was expected to win in an earlier opinion poll conducted in January this year.

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The results of the latest opinion poll, released on Saturday, said the 34 per cent vote share would translate into 3 seats in the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi.
Delhi has seven Lok Sabha seats which will go to the polls in the third phase on April 10.

AAP chief convenor Arvind Kejriwal, who formed a minority government in Delhi after a stupendous showing in the first elections the party contested, resigned on February 14 after failing to table its pet anti-corruption legislation, the janlokpal bill, in the assembly.

In the assembly elections held in December, the AAP had bagged 28 seats out of the 70 while the BJP and SAD alliance had won 32. The Congress came a distant third with just 8 seats but supported the AAP government from outside. 

The ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll predicted the Congress to gain from the AAP loss, improving its vote share to 28 per cent from the 14 per cent predicted by opinion polls in February.

The BJP is also likely to get stronger with 32 per cent vote share and garner 3 seats, the opinion poll results showed.

As per the ABP News-Nielsen opinion poll, the BJP is "emerging stronger" as its vote share increased from 30 per cent and 1 seat,  according to February opinion polls and 29 per cent share, according to January opinion polls.

The poll, which interviewed 456 respondents, gave a margin of error in the ranges of ±5%.


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