WARM STATES: BATTLE IS BREWING, SIGNIFICANT IN A TIGHT CONTEST
DELHI
TOTAL SEATS: 07
Polls on: Apr 10
NEW DELHI: After its dream debut in Delhi assembly elections last December, now it’s AAP versus BJP in the Capital. And Congress, which had swept the 2009 Lok Sabha elections in Delhi, has become almost a fringe player after its dismal performance in the assembly polls. But BJP is struggling to find good candidates for at least 2-3 seats.
WEST BENGAL
TOTAL SEATS: 42
Polls on: Apr 17, 24, 30; May 7, 12
KOLKATA: After the ‘poriborton’ (change), CM Mamata Banerjee seeks to keep the Left Front out of the erstwhile Red bastion. Her Trinamool Congress is expected to add to its 2009 tally of 19 seats. The aim is to emerge as the third largest party in the Lok Sabha and, thus, play the kingmaker. While Congress and Left Front are desperate to keep their seats, BJP hopes to snatch a few seats riding on the Modi wave.
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ASSAM
TOTAL SEATS: 14
Polls on: Apr 7, 12, 24
GUWAHATI: Revival of statehood movements post Telangana and lopsided development are major issues in Congress-ruled Assam. But the perennial issue of Bangladeshi influx is expected to outweigh others in a state where Muslims account for 30-56% of voters in six of the 14 LS seats. The focus is, thus, on perfume baron Badruddin Ajmal-led AIUDF, whose entry in 2009 saw Congress, BJP and Asom Gana Parishad lose their vote shares.
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ODISHA
TOTAL SEATS: 21
Polls on: Apr 10, 17
BHUBANESWAR: Chief minister and BJD chief Naveen Patnaik seems to be in total control, with the opposition Congress and BJP still in disarray. The real challenge for him is to maintain balance while distributing tickets. He is trying to replace many powerful party leaders with candidates chosen by bureaucrats. Congress hopes to regain lost ground, while BJP is eyeing coalition with smaller parties.
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JHARKHAND
TOTAL SEATS: 14
Polls on: Apr 10, 17, 24
RANCHI: BJP has managed, often shakily, to remain a formidable force in Maoist-affected Jharkhand. But neither BJP nor Congress is likely to have it easy now. The reason: Rise of regional parties — mostly rebellious offshoots of the two. Besides JMM, the challengers include JVM(P) led by BJP rebel Babulal Marandi and the AJSU. Another hitch for the BJP is the clash between two of its stalwarts, Yashwant Sinha and Arjun Munda.
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JAMMU & KASHMIR
TOTAL SEATS: 06
Polls on: Apr 10, 17, 24, 30; May 7
SRINAGAR: J&K is one of the states where LS elections are fought more on local issues than on national agenda. And the discourse now is revolving around the execution of Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru, the closure of the Pathribal encounter case, the ruling NC’s failed promises of greater autonomy and the revocation of AFSPA. NC is on a sticky wicket. As for BJP, the NaMo wave could be a game changer in Jammu, where the party faced dry spells twice.
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UTTARAKHAND
TOTAL SEATS: 05
Polls on: May 7
DEHRADUN: Congress unexpectedly had a clean sweep in the 2009 LS polls. For BJP, it is now comeback time, with the state yet to recover fully from last year’s natural disaster. But under new chief minister Harish Rawat, regarded an able organiser, Congress is unlikely to give up easily. His steps — relaxing age limit for government jobs and focus on minorities and Dalits, who were shifting towards BSP — are expected to be of help.
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HIMACHAL PRADESH
TOTAL SEATS: 04
Polls on: May 7
SHIMLA: Himachal Pradesh, where regionalism scores over other issues, usually votes in favour of the party ruling the state. Traditionally, the highland — part of Himachal before statehood in 1971 — has sided with Congress while the lowland (areas that were merged) has been favouring BJP. Corruption is a key issue, with serious charges against CM Virbhadra Singh. The BJP, too, is facing a series of investigations.
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PUNJAB
TOTAL SEATS: 13
Polls on: Apr 30
CHANDIGARH: The ruling SAD is banking on Narendra Modi’s ‘magnetism’ to get over the mauling in the 2009 polls from Congress. Of the 13 LS seats, SAD will contest 10 and BJP three. In a bid to appeal to young voters, it has fielded the candidature of four fresh faces. But disenchantment of voters is dogging the coalition. Congress, on the other hand, is grappling with dissent, with its frontline leaders lying low.
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HARYANA
TOTAL SEATS: 10
Polls on: Apr 10
CHANDIGARH: Anti-incumbency and infighting still remain the hallmark of Congress, as it eyes a third big victory. The party has been in power in Haryana since 2005. What could work in Congress’ favour, though, is a harried opposition. Top leaders of INLD — former CM Om Prakash Chautala and his son Ajay are behind bars in a corruption case. The BJP has chosen Kuldeep Bishnoi’s HJC over INLD for a pre-poll pact.
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KERALA
TOTAL SEATS: 20
Polls on: Apr 10
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: Kerala has experimented with coalitions since the 1970s. It will be no different this time, with voters invariably swinging between Congress-led UDF and Left-backed LDF. Congress’ allies include IUML, which has the support of the state’s 26% Muslims, and the Christian-majority Kerala Congress (Mani). But corruption charges against the otherwise popular CM Oommen Chandy is a worry.
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