Who will rule BMC? Shiv Sena with 84 seats or BJP with 82india Updated: Feb 26, 2017 08:07 IST
Polling officers open postal ballot boxes as the counting for BMC elections begin, at Global Mill compound in central Mumbai on Thursday.(Anshuman Poyrekar/HT Photo)
The BJP on Thursday said the results of the BrihanMumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) polls were an answer to those who have been opposing demonetisation and asserted that the result would be repeated in five states where assembly polls are being held.
Putting up its best ever show in the BMC elections, the BJP bagged 82 seats, just two short of Shiv Sena.
A party needs 114 seats to stake claim to the mayor’s post.
Below are the highlights of the tumultuous day:
7.20pm: Through hardwork, determination & work on the ground, BJP is now a strong force both in urban & rural Maharashtra. Congrats to Karyakartas, tweets PM Narendra Modi.
7.10pm: Sena Chief Uddhav Thackeray suspects foul play in missing voters’ names, demands probe.
7pm: BJP’s Atul Shah won ward no. 220 of BMC after lottery in presence of Municipal Commissioner.
6.29pm: Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray says, “We are number one in Mumbai..Not in a hurry for alliance.” Also demands probe after voters’ names found missing, suspects foul play
5.16pm: Suspense on one seat. Atul Shah and Surendra Bagalkar tie after recounting in south Mumbai
5.09pm: In Mumbai, NCP wins more seats (9) than Raj Thackeray’s MNS (7)
4.50pm: Results for 119 of 131 seats in Thane -- Sena won 58, BJP 21, NCP 33, Cong 3, MIM 2
4.40pm: Shiv Sena supporters celebrate outside chief Uddhav Thackeray’s residence ‘Matoshree’ in Mumbai: ANI
4.15pm: Recounting on in 2 wards
4.13pm: BJP’s Mumbai chief Ashish Shelar declares win on 81 seats, claims support of 4 independents
4.07pm: In Ulhasnagar, BJP wins 32, Shiv Sena 25, SAI 8, NCP 4, Congress 1, RPI 2
4.04pm: Mumbai BJP chief Ashish Shelar claims they have won 85 seats including 81 of BJP and 4 independents
4.03pm: “BJP ka pradarshan achha raha. Mumbai ne development,transparency ko chuna;Is path par hum mitrpaksh ko saath lekar chalenge,” says BJP’s Kirit Somaiya
4.02pm: Results for 99 of 131 seats in Thane -- Sena won 51, BJP 17, NCP 26, Cong 2, MIM 2
4.01pm: “Congress and Shiv Sena worked together to defeat us but we still did well,” says Mumbai BJP chief Ashish Shelar
3.54pm: “I accept decision of people of Mumbai. Will keep working for the party,” says Congress’ Sanjay Nirupam
3.52pm: State BJP chief Raosaheb Danave says, “Pankaja Munde need not resign, will convince her to change decision.”
3.51pm: “Parli poll outcome is unexpected for me. I take responsibility and resigns as minister,” says Pankaja Munde
3.42pm: After BJP’s poor performance in ZP elections in Beed, Pankaja Munde offers to resign as minister
3.40pm:Results for 225 seats out - Sena 84, BJP 80, Congress 31, NCP 9, MNS 7, SP 6, AIMIM 3, Ind 5. Recounting on two seats
3.35pm: Solapur civic body, which was controlled by the Congress since 1964, now going to BJP
3.28pm: MNS and NCP protest against BJP’s win in Mulund
3.26pm: Sujata Phatak from MNS complains of counting errors in Mulund, an eastern suburb of Mumbai
3.25pm: Results of 72 wards of 151 in Nagpur Municipal Corporation out. BJP wins 54, Congress 14, BSP 4.
3.23pm: BJP leading in 30 wards in Amravati
Seats won in BMC
Shiv Sena: 77
3.06pm: Counting of 85 seats in Thane over. Sena wins 34, BJP 22, Congress 15, NCP 4, AIMIM 2, SP 6, MNS 1, others 1
3.04pm: BJP leading in Latur, setback for Congress
3.01pm: BJP establishes comfortable lead in both Pune and Pimpri-Chinchwad
2.58pm: Shiv Sena managed to win only 4 seats in its earlier bastion K-East ward (Bandra-Andheri). BJP won 7 seats, Congress 3 and NCP 1
2.57pm: Firecrackers being burst to celebrate Sena’s win led to a minor fire outside Uddhav Thackeray’s home in Bandra
2.41pm: AIMIM gets its first candidate, Gulnaz Qureshi, elected from ward number 92 in Bandra.
2.39pm: 10 people detained for causing hindrance to counting police
2.30pm: Shiv Sena leading in 92 wards, BJP in 77 wards, Congress in 29 wards, NCP in 7 wards, MNS in 6 wards & others on 14. Source: ANI
2.17pm: In a major upset, NCP’s Rakhi Jadhav defeats BJP’s Bhalchandra Shirsat, Sena’s Mangal Bhanushali
2.15pm: Of the 62 seats counted in Thane, Sena won in 32, BJP 16, NCP 9, MIM 2, Congress 2 and Ind 1
2.10pm: Tough fight between BJP’s Atul shah and Sena’s Surendra Bagalkar, both of whom won 5,496 votes. Recounting begins
2.05pm: AIMIM loses all 8 seats from Byculla, Dongri and Pydhonie
2.02pm: Shiv Sena wins 8 wards in Bandra, Santacruz and Khar in western suburbs of Mumbai
2pm: Sena wins 20 seats, BJP 12, NCP 6,Cong 2, MIM 2 and independent 1 in Thane
1.56pm: Counting of 85 seats over. The results -- Shiv Sena wins 34, BJP 22, Congress 15, NCP 4, AIMIM 2, SP 6, MNS 1 and others 1
1.53pm: Shiv Sena’s Muslim candidate Haji Mohammed Halim Khan wins from ward number 96 In Bandra
1.49pm: The Sena is leading on 28 seats, whereas the BJP is way behind with 8 seats and NCP 7.
1.40pm: AIMIM wins two seats in Mumbra in Thane
1.37pm: Samajwadi Party wins six seats in Mankhurd-Shivajinagar
1.36pm: BJP ahead in Pimpri-Chinchwad and Solapur, jolt to Ajit Pawar and Sushil Kumar Shinde
1.35pm: Sena wins 8 out of 14 seats in Bhandup, Vikhroli and Kanjurmarg. BJP bags 4
1.31pm: Recounting ordered in fight between ex-MLA Atul Shah and Surendra Bagalkar in south Mumbai
1.22pm: Underworld don-turned-politician Arun Gawli’s daughter Geeta wins from ward 212 (Byculla) in central Mumbai
1.18pm: Congress city president Sanjay Nirupam takes responsibility of defeat. Offers to resign
1.15pm: Shiv Sena’s sitting corporator and leader of the House Trushna Vishwasrao loses to Congress’ Sufiyan Vanu
1.13pm: Shiv Sena sweeps Marathi heartland -- Parel, Lalbaug and Dadar. Bags 11 out of 13 seats. MNS wiped out. Congress and BJP win one seat each.
1.10pm: Scuffle between Shiv Sena and BJP workers at Dadar
1.09pm: BJP likely to win in a big way in other civic bodies like Nagpur, Pune, Akola, Amravati
1.09pm: BJP leading in six out of 7 seats in Sena stronghold in Goregaon in north Mumbai
1.08pm: Shiv Sena leading in 90 seats, BJP in 60
1.06pm: Former mayor Milind Vaidya makes a comeback, wins Mahim seat for Shiv Sena
1.03pm: Yashodhar Phanse and Devendra Amberkar Sena candidates lose from Andheri west. BJP wins both these seats
1.02pm: Congress candidate Rajendra Narwankar, retired BMC assistant engineer, wins from ward no 216. Source: ANI
12.58pm: MNS suffers a huge setback as it loses all seats in Dadar-Mahim belt. Shiv Sena reclaims with 5 wins out of 6. The lone seat went to Sheetal Gambhir Desai, who incidentally is the daughter of Suresh Gambhir, former Sena legislator.
12.53pm: MNS opens account in Mumbai, Dilip Lande wins in Kurla
12.50pm: BJP wins 2 out of 3 south Mumbai seats
12.49pm: In Ulhasnagar: Shiv Sena 17, BJP 17, NCP 4 , RPI 2
12.48pm: Maha elections: Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM wins 5 seats in Solapur Municipal Corporation. Source: ANI
12.43pm: Former BJP MLA Atul Shah and city BJP chief Ashish Shelar’s brother Vinod lose to Sena candidates, Sena MP Rahul Shewale’s wife Kamini loses to BJP.
12.41pm: City BJP chief Ashish Shelar’s brother Vinod loses to Sena’s Swapnil Tembvalkar
12.36pm: BJP and Shiv Sena are leading in a majority of 10 civic bodies in Maharashtra. BJP is leading in Pune, Nashik, Nagpur and Amravati. NCP may manage to retain power in Pimpri Chichwad . The Congress is leading in Akola but likely to lose power in Solapur and Amravati. In Ulhasnagar, it seems to be a close contest between BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP.
12.33pm: Mayor HS Patil and his daughter-in-law Sneha Patil lose to ex-deputy mayor and BJP candidate Mukesh Mokashi in Thane
12.30pm: It is a clear victory of transparency in Mulund, says BJP MP Kirit Somaiya’s son Neil, who won from one of the wards
12.28pm: Clean sweep for BJP in Mulund. Wins all six seats in the ward.
12.26pm: In Thane: Sena leading on14 seats, BJP 10 and NCP at 7
12.25pm: Shiv Sena leading in 85 wards, BJP in 52, Congress 16, MNS p, NCp 6 and others 5: ANI
12.21pm: BMC’s richest candidate Parag Shah (BJP) wins
12.18pm:Sitting Congress corporator and BMC opposition leader Pravin Chheda lost
12.12pm: Sena leading in 14 seats in Thane, BJP 10 and NCP at 7
12.10pm: Sena candidates leading in more than 80 seats in Mumbai
12.09pm: City BJP chief Ashish Shelar’s brother Vinod trailing against Sena’s Swapnil Tembwalkar
12.08pm: Ex-Shiv Sena mayor Shraddha Jadhav wins consecutively for the 6th time from ward no. 202
#BMCPolls2017: Ex-Shiv Sena Mayor Shraddha Jadhav wins consecutively for the 6th times from ward no. 202.— ANI (@ANI_news) February 23, 2017
12.05pm: Nagpur: BJP leading in 24 seats, while the rival Congress is leading only in 9 seats. In Akola, BJP is leading on 7 seats, Congress 3 and Shiv Sena and NCP one each. In Amravati, the BJP is leading on six seats, Congress is leading on one seat.
12.03pm: Ulhasnagar Municipal Corporation civic poll: Shiv Sena: 12 , BJP: 12, NCP: 4
11.57am: First list of winners declared, Shiv Sena wins 8 seats
11.54am: Shiv Sena leading in 75 wards, BJP in 40 wards, Congress in 11 wards, MNS in 6 wards, NCP in 4 wards and others on 2: ANI
11.51am: Shiv Sena party workers celebrate outside party office as initial trends indicate their lead: ANI
11.50am: Ulhasnagar Municipal Corporation civic poll: Shiv Sena: 12 , BJP: 8, NCP: 4
11.48am: Shiv Sena leading in Marathi heartland Dadar in six out of eight wards
11.47am: Early trends show BJP leading in Pune, may wrest power at PMC on its own
11.40am: In Thane: Sena leading in 15 seats, BJP 7, NCP 4 and MNS 2
11.37am: Shiv Sena leading in 57 wards, BJP in 34 wards, Congress in 8 wards, MNS in 5 wards, NCP in 4 wards and others in 1 ward: ANI
11.33am: Shiv Sena is likely to emerge as the largest party in Mumbai civic body
11.28am: MaharashtraCivicpolls: Counting of votes for 151 wards in Nagpur underway; BJP leading on 16 wards and Congress on 4 wards: ANI
#MaharashtraCivicpolls: Counting of votes for 151 wards in Nagpur underway; BJP leading on 16 wards and Congress on 4 wards.— ANI (@ANI_news) February 23, 2017
11.25am: Maharashtra trends: BJP ahead in Pune, Solapur, Nagpur, Nashik, Amravati & Akola
11.23am: Shiv Sena leads in 46 seats, BJP in 32, Congress 10, MNS 5, NCP 2
11.21am: Results of round 1 in ward 2
BJP’s Jagdish Ojha : 1,534 votes
Sena’s Bhalchandra Mhatre: 1,157 votes
Bhawar Kumawat (Congress): 272
11.15am: Ulhasnagar Municipal Corporation: BJP: 4 , Shiv Sena: 8, NCP - 4
11.10am: Congress’ Pravin Chheda and BMC’s richest candidate Parag Shah at a school in Ghatkopar
11.05 am: Shiv Sena leading in 36 wards, BJP in 24 wards, Congress in 6 wards, MNS in 4 wards and NCP in 2 wards: ANI
10.56am: Shiv Sena leading in all seats in F-south ward (Chembur, Kurla and neighbouring areas)
10.55am: Shiv Sena leads in 27 seats, BJP 19, Congress 6, NCP 2
10.50am: Early trend: Shiv Sena leading in six seats, BJP in 3, Congress in 2
10:45am: BJP’s Harsh Patel leading by 1,284 votes against Shiv Sena’s Biren Limbachiya in Ward 55. Tejasvi Ghosalkar from Sena leading in Kandarpada Ward 1.
10:40am: Before the voting began, Maharashtra BJP President Raosaheb Danve said his party will win an absolute majority in the BMC. “Of the 10 municipal corporations that went to polls, the BJP will come to power in six, including Mumbai,” he said. State BJP spokesperson Madhav Bhandari claimed the BJP will be the single largest party in the BMC.
Sena spokesperson Neelam Gorhe dismissed exit poll results that predicted a close contest between the Sena and the BJP in the country’s largest civic body with none of them getting majority. Gorhe said the Uddhav Thackeray-led party will defy exit poll results and get majority on its own.
10:23am: Counting underway in Mumbai. Shiv Sena takes early lead in wards 200 and 202 even as the BJP leads on ward 218, reports ANI.
10:00am: Counting starts for 227 wards in the BMC polls.
The increase in the percentage of voter turnout as compared to the 2012 BMC polls is also not an indicator of a clear trend. Reason: The voters’ list has been substantially downsized since 2012. Although the voter turnout jumped to 55.53%, as compared to 44.75 % in 2012, the voters’ list shrunk to 91.8 lakh from 1.02 crore. The actual number of voters this election were just 4.94 lakh more than in 2012.
Deepak Pawar, a faculty member of the department of politics in the Mumbai University, said, “Usually, a significant jump in voter turnout means the irregular voter, tired of the current system, has voted, which translates into a strong anti-incumbency vote. But in this case, with the absolute number of voters having barely changed, anti-incumbency is definitely not the case.”
He said with the fight being cutthroat and one of prestige for both the Sena and the BJP, both parties tried to mobilise their cadre to ensure every voter in their respective strongholds, even the reluctant ones, are made to vote. “This may have resulted in the highest spike in the wards dominated by both parties,” Pawar said.
HT looks at four possible scenarios that could play out after the results for the country’s richest civic body are announced:
SENA, BJP MAKE A COMEBACK FOR ‘THE GOOD OF MUMBAI’
The polarised poll battle in the city between the Shiv Sena and the BJP and the predictions of the exit polls points to a close contest between the saffron allies. In such a scenario, if both parties get similar tallies, there may be little choice but to have a post-poll alliance. In such a scenario, the name-calling and slandering will be left behind for the ‘greater good’. Like in the KDMC, the allies will share the mayors’ post for two-and-a-half years each and come out with a common minimum programme to whitewash the high octane differences during the campaign.
SENA SPRINGS A SURPRISE, STEALS THE LEAD
If the Sena manages to retain its existing strength (75 seats) and wins much of the Marathi vote bank lost to the MNS in the last election (28 seats), to come out on top, it will be within striking distance of wresting Mumbai on its own. In such a scenario, it will get smaller parties, independents on its side. This will also lead to a situation where the Sena-BJP will be allies in the state and the Centre, but opponents in the BMC.
BJP’S DEVELOPMENT AGENDA SCORES OVER SENA
If the high voter turnout is really a vote for change and the BJP’s winning streak continues, it may emerge as the single-largest party in the Mumbai civic body. If the party manages a three-fold jump in its existing tally of 31 corporators, it will try to grab power in the BMC on its own. The party has some understanding with independent candidates already, who can join it immediately post polls. It will also try and get support of smaller parties like the MNS and the NCP.
SENA LEADS IN BMC AND TAKES TACIT SUPPORT OF CONGRESS
If one goes with the assumption of a close contest between the saffron allies, there is a likelihood that other parties, including the Cong, will be marginalised. With all the main parties contesting polls independently, the chance of many independents winning seats also gets diminished. In such a scenario, if the Sena takes the lead and requires support of another party, Cong may agree to give tacit support by abstaining from voting to widen the divide between the Sena and the BJP.