Finally, it’s over. The civil nuclear deal between India and the United States has crossed all legislative hurdles, and President George W. Bush, pen ready, is waiting to sign it into law.
For Bush it’s a major foreign policy score given that his administration faces major setbacks
in Afghanistan-Pakistan, North Korea and continuing troubles in Iraq. A tottering economy adds to Bush’s legacy issues.
For Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, Thursday morning’s Senate vote of confidence in the nuclear deal is the culmination of a dogged pursuit of a goal on which he staked the survival of his government and his personal credibility.
“I’m greatly relieved. We’ll be able to set this issue aside and start a new chapter in our relations. The nuclear deal had sucked out all the oxygen out of other aspects of our relationship,” Lalit Mansingh, former Indian envoy to the US, told the Hindustan Times.
Mansingh, one of those who batted for the deal, like many other Indian foreign policy pundits, has concerns about the fine print of the law that’s been passed and the status of fuel supply assurances in the deal.
In his first reaction to the Senate vote, Anil Kakodkar, chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, took a cautious line.
“We need to study the whole thing and act according to our national interests,” he told the Hindustan Times by telephone from Vienna.
The Indian side is waiting for a statement from President Bush, in which he could address New Delhi’s concerns on nuclear fuel supplies, which the US chief executive has described as a political, and not legal, commitment.
“On balance, it’s a good deal, but there are loose ends that could create complications in the long-term,” a former Indian diplomat, who preferred anonymity, said Thursday.
“The Americans have to convince us that the fine print and their statements don’t put us at a disadvantage,” Mansingh felt, pointing out that the French were offering fuel supply assurances as well as reprocessing possibilities.
A letter written to the Washington by New Delhi offering to place orders for at least 10,000 megawatts of power capacity that “takes into account affordability, sustainability of nuclear fuel resources and credibility of nuclear waste management” makes India’s position pretty clear.
With any quantum leap, there are bound to be concerns. But, there’s little doubt that the US and India have sealed a new relationship, which will impact global strategic equations.
And, New Delhi, of course is more than aware that breaking the international non-proliferation regime without American help would have been an impossible task.
Now, we can look at other things
With the N-deal done, new US President – Barack Obama or John McCain – can shift the focus to other issues in the Indo-US ties. The single-issue preoccupation for both countries has now come to an end.
What the US wants
In the defence field, the US wants India to play a larger role in regional and global affairs. On account of pressure from the Left parties, India has not signed the Logistics Supply Agreement (LSA), the Communications and Information Security Memorandum of Agreement and an end-use monitoring agreement with the US. The LSA would allow the US to refuel its aircraft and ships in India without case-by-case permission that is currently required. Forward movement is now expected.
What India wants
New Delhi is keen that the US openly support its ambitions to secure a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council. Despite a number of meetings, the US has, so far, never come out in support of India’s ambitions to occupy a permanent Security Council seat.
What both countries want
A bilateral investment treaty would be mutually beneficial as the US happens to be one of the largest foreign investors in India and Indian investments in the US are also growing at a fast rate. After two rounds of exploratory talks on the proposed treaty held in New Delhi in April 2008 and Washington in June 2008, the two sides have decided to start formal negotiations. Dates are being worked out. In 2007-08, bilateral trade stood at US$ 33.9 billion.
Milestones
Twists and turns in the journey of the India-US nuclear deal in the last three and half years:
July 18, 2005: PM Manmohan Singh and President George Bush sign a joint statement in Washington on India-US civil nuclear cooperation
March 2, 2006: India and the US "finalise" framework of the agreement. India to separate its civil and nuclear facilities and put 14 civil facilities under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. In exchange, US agrees to work towards full civil nuclear cooperation with India
December 9, 2006: Both houses of US Congress approve the Hyde Act, it grants the US administration a waiver from Section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act to resume nuclear commerce with India
October 2007: The deal runs into problems with the Left parties saying that the deal was against the country's interests
May 2008: India finalises the text of the safeguards agreement with IAEA and indicates it will sign it
July 7, 2008: Manmohan Singh says the government was planning to go ahead with the IAEA pact.
July 9, 2008: The Left parties withdraw support to the government and call for a vote of confidence.
July 22, 2008: The UPA government wins the trust vote in Parliament
September 6, 2008: The 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) grants waiver to India opening the doors to global nuclear commerce for New Delhi after three decades.
September 23, 2008: The US Senate Foreign Relations Committee approves the agreement, but its new provisions stating that the deal will be subject to the Hyde Act create some uncertainty.
September 27, 2008: House of Representatives passes the 123 agreement by a margin of 298-117.
October 1, 2008: Senate passes the approval bill 86-13.