Keeping up with UP | 2022 polls: Vote for change or continuity?
Since 2007, Uttar Pradesh has been voting for change. Can current CM, Yogi Adityanath, buck the trend?
In 1995, when Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati became the first Dalit woman chief minister of Uttar Pradesh, the late Prime Minister PV Narasimha Rao had declared that she was as a “miracle of Indian democracy.”
Her ascension to the state’s top post had come in controversial circumstances as the BSP pulled out of their alliance with the Samajwadi Party with SP workers famously holding her hostage at the state guest house in Lucknow on June 2, 1995, the hatchet buried many years later.
In 2007 though, Mayawati pulled off an even bigger miracle in UP’s political landscape, ending a 14-year cycle of coalitions in the state to finally form a majority government, the first since the BJP won 221 seats of 423 in the then undivided Uttar Pradesh in 1991. That Kalyan Singh led government was dismissed in December 1992 in the wake of the demolition of the Babri Masjid, setting off a chain of coalition governments in elections in 1993, 1996 and 2002.
Between 1993 and 2007 then, the people of the state saw a period of political turmoil under eight chief ministers and three spells of President’s rule. Thus, when in 2007 Mayawati’s BSP won a clear majority, she rang in a semblance of political stability.
Since then, the people of Uttar Pradesh have favoured decisive mandates, and each has been for change. In 2012, they elected the Samajwadi Party and in 2017 the Bharatiya Janata Party.
With a decade and a half of stable government, there is much debate on whether UP will vote for change or continuity, or if this is the election that brings back a fractured mandate.
All three primary leaders of the state — Mayawati, Akhilesh Yadav and Yogi Adityanath — have their own claims on their performances during their tenures, which continue to be centrepieces in their campaigns. Mayawati claims improving law and order and giving voice to the Dalits brought her to power, Akhilesh has at his fingertips the mega-development projects he gave to the state, while Yogi Adityanath has a cocktail of Hindutva and development to parade.
In 2017, the BJP swept the elections primarily riding the crest of a Prime Minister Narendra Modi wave, with the party not even declaring a Chief Ministerial face before the polls. This time though, there is a difference, and the challenge has been set. Yogi Adityanath is the face, and in front of him is the massive challenge not only of winning the next election, but potentially bettering the BJP’s 2017 tally of 312. The question is, can the BJP buck the trend that started in 2007?
Ironically, many in the BJP quote the uninterrupted Congress rule in the state from 1980 to 1989 to drive home the point that the party could return to power, and a change in guard is not inevitable at all. Within the BJP, there are reasons for that confidence.
A few months before the party high command laid to rest all speculation about a change in guard in the state, it had conducted a massive exercise of assessing the pros and cons of entering the electoral arena under Yogi’s leadership. This was at a time when the BJP national leadership was changing multiple chief ministers in states where they are in power, replacing five state heads in Karnataka, Assam, Gujarat and twice in Uttarakhand in 2021.
A political observer said Yogi’s stature had grown over the past five years, despite rubbing some the wrong way, which meant that it was no longer easy to replace him. Though there have been suggestions that the Brahmins in UP have developed a sense of alienation, many believe that on polling day, a sense of Hindu identity will prevail, cutting through caste differences. His opponents, within and outside the party often reel off the number of Rajput officers that occupy prime positions in the bureaucracy. Yogi himself has brushed off these allegations, asserting, “The monk has no caste.” “Hinduism has taken over Brahminism. They will still likely support the BJP,” the observer said.
BJP leader Amit Puri said that in his years in the chair, Yogi has not only established his leadership but gained in popularity, and even if he comes under attack from the Opposition, that will only mean a consolidation of his own support base.
With support from the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS), Yogi’s stature has also grown as a national figure with him airdropped across the country in the BJP’s campaigns in other states, looking to expand the Hindutva fold. In the process, the BJP has created a brand “Yogi” despite the murmurs against his style of functioning within the party rank and file. A political observer said, asking not to be quoted, “The BJP picked up Yogi from the Hindu Yuva Vahini and he has become the poster boy of aggressive Hindutva. He has delivered on that front.”
However, many believe that the true picture of where the elections are leaning will only begin emerging once elections are formally announced by the Election Commission of India. They argue that voices against the government are muted because of a fear of speaking out while others contend that TINA(There is no alternative) may factor prominently in election choices.
Prof Manoj Dixit from Lucknow believes that the outcome of the election could have much to do with poll percentages. A dip by 5% could favour the Opposition, if they provide a credible alternative around a pressing issue. Prof Rajesh Singh from Gorakhpur feels that people who want change thus far are being unable to see a viable alternative. While Samajwadi Party national president Akhilesh Yadav has emerged as the front-runner, the BSP and the Congress will cut into his anti-incumbency vote, Singh said.
However, the Opposition, too, believes there are encouraging signs, not least the growing crowds at Akhilesh Yadav’s rallies that have not gone unnoticed even by the BJP leadership, and that the incumbent government is running out of issues bar “religious hype.” Former SP minister Abhishek Mishra said, “The people are silent as they fear the administration’s reprisals. They have already made up their mind to vote for a change.”
But if there are obviously divergent estimations on what will happen in elections to India’s biggest, and politically most important state, there is unanimity among political parties that voters will likely give a clear verdict. Professor Dixit said, “Time and again Indian voters have proved to be very smart. No one can take them for granted.”
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