Skymet, a private weather company, has predicted below normal rainfall this monsoon. Between June and September, which is the monsoon season in India, rainfall is forecast to be at 95% of the long period average of 887 mm.
About 70 percent of India’s rainfall happens in this period and irrigates almost half of India’s farmland, being of particular importance for Kharif crops.
There is a fifty percent chance of an El Nino developing in the second half of the monsoon season, which translates into deficit rainfall in the months of July, August and September.
The El Nino refers to an unusual warming, which is the unusual warming of the surface waters of the Pacific. “We don’t need an established El Nino we only need an emerging El Nino,” Jatin Singh, who heads Skymet Weather said. “In 2014 it was not an El Nino year but there was a drought, an emerging El Nino is enough to disrupt monsoons.”
The western region and adjoining areas and central India and major parts of peninsular India are likely to see below normal rain. Parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu are already in the grip of drought.
Only eastern India, Orissa, Jharkhand and West Bengal, will be blessed with a good monsoon throughout the season, according to the forecast.
However, the monsoons are notoriously hard to predict and Skymet has in the past updated its initial forecasts. Last year they had forecast above normal rains, but the monsoons were normal in 2016.
The predictions for this year are:
• 0% chance of excess (seasonal rainfall that is more than 110% of LPA)
• 10% chance of above normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 105 to 110% of LPA)
• 50% chance of normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 96 to 104% of LPA)
• 25% chance of below normal (seasonal rainfall that is between 90 to 95% of LPA)
• 15% chance of drought (seasonal rainfall that is less than 90% of LPA) -
(LPA: Long period Average)
June – 102% of LPA (LPA for June = 164 mm) • 70% chance of normal • 20% chance of above normal • 10% chance of below normal
July – 94% of LPA (LPA for July= 289 mm) • 60% chance of normal • 10% chance of above normal • 30% chance of below normal
August – 93% of LPA (LPA for August = 261 mm) • 60% chance of normal • 10% chance of above normal • 30% chance of below normal September – 96% of LPA (LPA for
September = 173 mm) • 50% chance of normal • 20% chance of above normal • 30% chance of below normal - See more at: