The Samajwadi Party’s cycle may wobble in Uttar Pradesh, while the Janata Dal (United)’s arrow could miss its mark in Bihar, according to a CNN-IBN – CSDS election tracker.
The survey says if elections were held immediately, the Bharatiya Janata Party may pick up 41-49 of the 80 seats in UP. The saffron party had won 10 seats in the state in 2009.
The party’s prime ministerial nominee, Narendra Modi, sent his aide Amit Shah to UP well in advance to do the spadework for a much better showing this time in the state with the highest number of Lok Sabha seats.
Despite being in power, the SP may manage 11-17 seats. Mulayam Singh Yadav’s party had won 23 seats in 2009.
The Congress which had put in a strong performance five years ago with 20 seats may slip to between five and nine seats this time, the survey shows.
The poll suggests Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) may end up with eight to 14 seats. The BSP had won 20 seats in 2009.
In Bihar, the BJP and Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) together could notch up between 22 and 30 of the 40 seats.
The Nitish Kumar-led ruling JD(U), which ended ties with the BJP and walked out of the National Democratic Alliance in June last year, is projected to secure only 4 to 8 seats. As allies in 2009, they had won 32 seats — the JD(U) 20 and the BJP 12.
The most preferred prime ministerial candidate in both states is Modi, says the survey conducted between February 17 and 23.
While only 14% of Bihar respondents said they preferred Nitish as PM candidate, there seemed to a growing dissatisfaction in UP with CM Akhilesh Yadav’s governance in UP, according to the survey.