AAP to spoil the party for Cong, BJP: surveys
A survey of all opinion polls conducted in the last six months indicate the Capital is headed for a hung assembly.india Updated: Dec 07, 2013 13:39 IST
The Delhi elections are just two days away, a high-pitched campaign is grinding to a halt and the question on every lip is, 'who will form the next government?'.
A clear answer will emerge only on counting day (December 8). But for now, a survey by India TV-CVoter and a combined calculation, by CVoter, of all opinion polls conducted in the last six months indicate the Capital is headed for a hung assembly.
The parties are still playing it cool. Both the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the BJP came out with last-minute internal surveys on Sunday projecting itself as the winner. As for the ruling Congress, all the surveys seem to be predicting the end of a record 15-year run.
The India TV-CVoter survey projected a close fight between the Congress (27 seats) and the BJP (29), and gave the rookie AAP just 10 in the 70-strong assembly. It predicted a 33% vote share for the BJP and 30% for the Congress with AAP eating in with 24%.
The combined calculation - average figures based on 14 surveys done from April 2 to December 1 -gives the BJP 30 seats, the Congress 26 and AAP 12. It predicts a 34% vote share for the BJP, 31% for Congress and 21% for Arvind Kejriwal's AAP.
The AAP survey, conducted on November 30, projected 38-50 seats for itself, 11-17 for the BJP and 8-14 for the Congress. "With no swing as per our projection, we will win 44 seats, the BJP 14 and the Congress 11," said party leader Yogendra Yadav.
It predicted a vote share of 36% for itself, 27% for BJP and 26% for Congress.
The BJP survey, which wasn't made officially available, showed itself way ahead (with 36 seats) of both the Congress (11) and AAP (5). However, it claimed there could be as many as 18 swing seats where the readings were too close to call.
Its vote share prediction was 35% for the BJP, 24% for Congress, 18% for AAP and 23% for the others.
In the last elections in 2008, the Congress had won a third straight term under Sheila Dikshit with 43 seats while the BJP had got 24. This time round, the city is witnessing a three-corner fight for the very first time.
It's now over to the city's 1.19 crore voters.