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The BJP-led national National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will emerge as the biggest formation in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, but will fall short of getting the majority mark of 272, an opinion poll by the Headlines Today said on Thursday.
The poll gave the ruling Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) 98-108 seats and predicted other parties would get 223-233 seats, indicating they would have a major role to play in government formation.
The poll by C-Voter gave 188 seats in the Lok Sabha to the BJP — which would improve on its best showing of 183 seats in 1999 — under its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. The saffron party had bagged 116 seats in the 2009 general elections.
The Congress would get 91 seats, down from the 206 in 2009, according to the poll.
Two other television channels termed the BJP the biggest gainer in Uttar Pradesh, but saw the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) making inroads in Delhi on its Lok Sabha debut.
While an opinion poll by CNN IBN-CSDS said the BJP would get 41-49 of UP’s 80 seats (the highest among states), an ABP News-Nielsen poll gave the saffron party 35 seats.
The BJP had won 10 seats in UP in 2009 and the projected gains would be significant as it seeks to dethrone the Congress at the Centre.
The polls see UP powerhouses, the ruling Samajwadi Party and opposition Bahujan Samaj Party, being reduced to 10 to 15 seats.
Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP has 22 Lok Sabha seats and Mayawati’s BSP 21. Both parties extend outside support to the UPA government.
The Congress which had performed well in UP in 2009 with 21 seats, will fare badly, according to the polls. The CNN IBN-CSDS gave it 4-10 seats and ABP News-Nielsen 12.
After a stellar performance in the Delhi assembly elections last year, the AAP is set to win 4-6 of the seven Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, according to the CNN IBN-CSDS survey.
In Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP will gain as well. According to the Headlines Today poll, BJP will get 21 (4 in 2009) of the 25 seats in Rajasthan; and 22 (16 in 2009) of the 29 seats in MP.
In the assembly polls last year, the BJP ousted the Congress in Rajasthan with a landslide win and comfortably retained MP, with chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan scoring a hat-trick of wins.
The Headlines Today poll sees the saffron party being the biggest gainer in Bihar, where it lost ally Janata Dal (United) following Modi’s elevation.
The poll said the BJP will get 22 seats as compared to 12 in 2009. The party will gain at the cost of chief minister Nitish Kumar’s JD-U, which is projected to get 4 seats (20 in 2009).
The Lok Sabha elections are due by May.