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BSP still has a slender lead over BJP

The BSP and BJP are projected to get 18 seats each in the 57 constituencies that went to poll in the fifth phase, reports Manish Chandra Pandey.

india Updated: Apr 28, 2007 22:24 IST
Manish Chandra Pandey

The BSP and BJP were projected to get 18 seats each in the 57 constituencies that went to poll in the fifth phase on Saturday, according to a Star News exit poll survey.

However, an NDTV survey gave a clear edge to the saffron party with 21 seats (+4.6 per cent vote swing in its favour and a gain of four seats) in this round with the BSP projected to get 14 seats, four less than its 2002 figure.

According to Star News, the ruling Samajwadi Party was facing a minor loss with 12 seats (-2.3 per cent vote swing). The NDTV survey, however, claimed the SP's loss might be bigger with the party likely to get only 10 seats. This would represent a loss of four seats.
Both Star News and NDTV said the Congress would improve its presence in the area significantly.

Star News gave the Congress 6 seats, NDTV said the party may get 9 seats from the region. The Congress had only four seats from these 57 constituencies earlier.

Both Star News and NDTV were unanimous that 'others', including the RLD, would get three seats in this round. The exit polls differed vastly on the overall scenario if the entire state had the same swing as in the first five phases.

Though both the surveys were unanimous that the BSP was likely to emerge as the single largest party in the UP assembly, they differed on the lead the BSP would enjoy against the second largest party, which both claimed was going to be the BJP.

Star News gave the BSP 141 seats, a clear edge over the BJP with 104 seats. However, the NDTV survey put the BSP tally between 120-130, a shade better than the BJP which was tipped to bag 115 to 125 seats overall. The BSP had 97 seats and the BJP 107 seats in 2002.

The Samajwadi Party, both agreed, would emerge third. Star News gave the ruling party 91 seats, but NDTV put the party's tally between 95 and 105 seats. The SP was the single largest party in 2002 with 145 seats. Star News claimed Congress might get 29 seats, but NDTV gave the party anywhere between 35 and 45 seats. The party had 25 seats last time.

Others, including the RLD, were expected to get 37 seats, as per Star News. NDTV claimed that 'others' would get between 15 and 25 seats.