Has Today’s Chanakya redeemed its reputation of getting poll predictions right? The pollster that had apologised for getting the Bihar assembly results wrong, after hitting headlines for getting right two general elections, managed to pip its competitors in getting the seat haul for Assam, West Bengal and Kerala nearly correct.
However, it erred in giving AIADMK, which swept back to power with (134) seats, only 90-99 seats.
In the 234-seat assembly in Tamil Nadu, where elections to two constituencies will be held on Monday, the AIADMK was expected to lose to an anti-incumbency vote, but C-Voter’s assessment of 139 seats for the J Jayalalitha-led party, which eventually bagged (134) came closest. Today’s Chanakya had given the party 90 to 99 seats while India Today-Axis predicted 89-101 for the party and 124-140 for its arch rival the DMK.
In Assam, where most exit polls indicated a win for the BJP, the predictions were close to the actual results. Here C-Voter forecast 57 seats for the BJP, which eventually walked away with 60 seats on its own and 86 with its allies. Today’s Chanakya and India Today-Axis had foreseen a comfortable win for the BJP with 90 and 79-83 seats in the 126-seat assembly.
ABP News-Nielsen too had predicted 81 seats for the BJP in the north-eastern-state.
In Kerala, where the BJP made a debut by winning its first ever seat in the assembly, and gained in vote share, the pollsters had put their money on the LDF, which bagged 91 seats. Today’s Chanakya had given the LDF 75-84 seats of the total 140, while C-Voter suggested 74-82 and India Today-Axis predicted 88-101.
In Kerala, Today’s Chanakya had given the BJP 4-8 seats, while India Today-Axis and C-Voter were more conservative with 0-3 and 0-4.
In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC retained its hold over the 294-seat assembly bagging (211) seats. IndiaToday-Axis had predicted a clean sweep for the TMC with 233-253 seats, while Today’s Chanakya was closest to the actual numbers with its 210; C-Voter stuck to 167 seats and ABP News-Nielsen had given Didi’s team 163 seats.