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IMD moots dynamic models to forecast monsoon

india Updated: Apr 24, 2010 14:13 IST

PTI
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Aiming precision in monsoon forecasting, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) is planning to develop "dynamic" prediction models, supplementing the existing statistics-based systems.

The programme to be given effect from next year will involve various meteorological institutes in the country that will work on the proposed 'National Mission on Monsoon' being undertaken at the instance of the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES).

"Use of reliable dynamic models will improve accuracy in weather and monsoon predictions", said Ajit Tyagi, Director General, Meteorology, IMD, at the just-concluded session of South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SACOF) in Pune.

The IMD officials, who participated in the deliberations, said various international dynamic prediction models would be studied to devise a five year monsoon forecast plan for India.

These dynamic models--- models that put greater accent on physics of atmospheric flow and processes--- for forecasting monsoon will function in addition to the statistics-based ones that are being employed at present.

The statistical models are based on correlation of various global and regional parameters.

At present, long range forecasting of the monsoon is based on statistical models that are also used for seasonal forecast.

"The dynamic models are more objective and the initial values used in the equations of these models are current weather observations", according to A B Mazumdar, Deputy Director General Meteorology, IMD, Pune.