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Northwest India –West Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Haryana and Rajasthan included – will have to wait some more for the monsoon rains to arrive, according to weather officials.
The system, according to officials, appears to have lost steam and is likely to add to the economic anxieties of the country with its potential to hit farm yield and further drive up food prices. The IMD has predicted 15% deficient rainfall for the region.
"There is a very small probability of a fresh surge in the next 3-4 days. Once a surge is formed, it will take a couple of days to develop and move forward," said BP Yadav, head of weather forecasting, Indian Meteorological Department.
Haryana and Punjab together contribute significant amounts to India’s rice farming and a delay is likely to hit paddy sowing.
The normal date for the rains to hit the national capital is June 29, and a deviation of seven days is acceptable. "The strength of monsoon fluctuates rapidly and we have to wait and watch," Yadav said, adding that the system can change significantly within 48 hours.
“It has arrived in the central and interior India but rainfall has been weak in the last few days", he added.
There are, however, smaller weather formations that have developed in the region and are bringing sporadic rainfall with overcast conditions in some areas.
“There is a western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir region. A cyclonic circuit has also developed over Rajasthan and there is a trough from this circulation passing very close to Delhi. We are still hoping that the monsoon will be around the normal date,” said private forecaster Skymet weather service’s vice-president GP Sharma.
According to IMD sources, the next few days in Delhi will be cloudy with thunder showers.
This year the monsoon hit Kerala on June 6, five days behind schedule. It arrived in Mumbai approximately 10 days later and is expected to cover the rest of India by mid-July.
The average length of the monsoon season in Delhi is 85 days.