PCL dream for ?power hungry? UP
IF DEMAND and supply forecasts of the UP Power Corporation Ltd (UPPCL) in the State?s 11th Five Year Plan are to be believed, Uttar Pradesh may have surplus electricity or may at least reach a ?break even? point by the end of the Plan in 2012. While the demand for electricity is forecast to double by 2012, the power availability is expected to triple from what it is at present.india Updated: Nov 02, 2006 01:51 IST
Corporation says State will have surplus generation by 2012
IF DEMAND and supply forecasts of the UP Power Corporation Ltd (UPPCL) in the State’s 11th Five Year Plan are to be believed, Uttar Pradesh may have surplus electricity or may at least reach a ‘break even’ point by the end of the Plan in 2012. While the demand for electricity is forecast to double by 2012, the power availability is expected to triple from what it is at present.
So against, the total power demand for 12550 MW (70613 million units) that is forecast to be in the State in 2012, the additional power available from new projects is expected to be as high as 9,591 MW plus the existing availability of 4600 MW.
The optimism hinges on the commissioning of new power projects by then.
However, experts say some projects like Reliance Dadri and Rosa, which the UPPCL expects to be ready by Plan end, are unlikely to come up.
As per the forecast document of the UPPCL, which has also been sent to the Centre, the annual peak demand in 2007 will be 8249 MW, it will be 8517 MW in 2008, 8930 MW in 2009, 11514 MW in 2010, 12007 MW in 2011 and 12550 MW in 2012.
Significantly, the demand-supply gap will continue shoot up till 2010 when the energy shortfall will be as high as –14.15 per cent. However, things will start looking up from 2011 when 15.31 per cent electricity will be surplus. The next year surplus power is expected to be 25.63 per cent.
“Capacity additions up to 2008-09 are very limited as there is no major project under construction. Owing to lack of adequate capacity, the system will not meet the forecasted demand meaning thereby the shortage of power will continue during this period. However, during 2009-10 approximately 2500 MW capacity is proposed to be added and therefore, system reliability will improve,” says the forecast document.
The same trend, claims the document, continues in the financial years 2011 and 2012 also due to commissioning of two Obra units of 500 MW each, a 250 MW unit at Panki and four units of 500 MW each at Dupaha in 2012 along with other committed projects.
The generation plan will meet planning criteria from the financial year 2011 onwards. In other words, the system will have adequate reserves and meet the forecasted demand, it claims.
With adequate capacity addition in the State sector, the dependence on the Central Sector (like NTPC etc), will reduce from 2011 onwards. In case, all the State sector plants are commissioned as envisaged in the plan, UP will have to surrender costlier power from the Central sector. “Alternatively, we can defer some of our committed plans in the 12th Plan,” it is claimed.
However, the forecast paper itself makes it clear that the only precondition to achieving reliable power by the end of the 11th Plan is that the ongoing power projects are completed as per the schedule.