UP exit polls: BSP on top, SP strong in Phase VII
Exit polls were unanimous that the BSP would emerge as the single largest party, reports Manish Chandra Pandey.india Updated: May 09, 2007 00:31 IST
After the last phase of the election on Tuesday, three exit polls were unanimous that the BSP would emerge as the single largest party, though they differed on whether the BJP or the ruling Samajwadi Party would be in second position.
While Star News and CNN-IBN projected the BSP would enjoy a comfortable lead over the party that came second, the NDTV survey predicted the SP would give a tough fight to the BSP in the race for the top slot.
The NDTV poll projected 117 to 127 seats for the BSP, about 10 less than it was giving to the party after the sixth phase and only four more than the ruling SP, which was tipped to get between 113 and
123 seats (three more than the survey was giving to the party
after the second last round on May 3).
The NDTV survey, which described this as the “closest UP election”, has now placed the SP as the second largest party, pushing the BJP to the third place. The saffron party is projected to get between 108 and 118 seats.
Star News projected 137 seats overall for the BSP, three less than what it was giving to the party after the sixth phase. It put BJP in second position with 108 seats followed by the SP with 96 seats. Though placed third in the Star News poll, the ruling party was still expected to improve its performance. Star News had given the SP 89 seats after the second last round.
The CNN-IBN poll, however, projected 152-168 seats for the BSP. Like NDTV, it, too, agreed, that the SP would push the BJP to the third place. The SP, as per CNN-IBN, would get between 99 and 111 seats followed by the BJP with 80 to 90 seats.
The exit polls also differed on the performance of the Congress this time. Star News gave the party 27 seats, CNN-IBN 25-33 seats and NDTV 35-45 seats.
NDTV and Star News were unanimous that the BSP and the SP were in for a photo finish in the seventh phase which saw 59 constituencies in eastern UP going to the poll on Tuesday.
Star News survey gave both the BSP and the SP 20 seats each in this round. The NDTV poll projected the SP would lead the last round with 20-24 seats against the BSP’s 19-23.
The Star News survey gave the BJP 11 seats in the last round. NDTV said the saffron party would win 8-11 seats.
Since no party is near the magic figure of 202, according to the exit polls, “others” could play a crucial role in government formation. Star News felt “others” would get 34 seats, CNN-IBN gave them 21-27 and NDTV 10-20.