Foodgrain prices are all set to drop in the next few months. Reason: Satisfactory rainfall in the past four months, which means the production of essential foodgrains, including pulses and oilseeds, has risen significantly.
According to primary estimates, collated by the state’s agriculture department, the production of oilseeds will see a 47% rise, while pulses are expected to rise by 42% — the highest rise being tur dal (48%).
The productivity of agricultural produce is also expected to rise significantly. This is measured as the ratio of agricultural output to input.
It is expected to go up by 19% for pulses and 25% for oilseeds. These are visual estimates made by revenue officials at taluka levels in September and are subject to change when the second estimates are taken in December. The kharif crops — cultivated between June and November — include rice , bajra; pulses such as tur, mung, udid and oilseeds, among others.
The production of pulses will be 18.89 lakh tonnes against the five-year average of 13.26 lakh tonnes, while oilseed production is expected to be 60.90 lakh tonnes against the average of 41.37 lakh tonnes, according to the estimates.
The production of sugarcane, however, is estimated to fall by 42% of the five-year average and by 31% of last year’s production. Three droughts in the past four years and the outrage over water grazing sugarcane has reportedly resulted in the drop in sugarcane production. Production has dropped to 496.65 lakh tonnes from an average of 851.95 lakh tonnes. The production of cereals such as jowar, bajra and ragi, too, has dropped because of poor price rates and heavy rainfall.
“Except for a couple of districts in Marathwada, agricultural production has been superb this year. Although primary estimates are visual and may vary from the scientific estimates in December-January, this year, production and productivity will be significantly high compared to the five-year average,” said Uday Deshmukh, chief statistician, commissionerate of agriculture.
Agricultural expert and former director of Valmi SB Varade said, “The soil moisture, humidity, groundwater table and irrigation sources are satisfactory this year, resulting in good crop. The slight decline in the area and production of some cereals such as jowar, ragi and rice was because of excessive rains and the absence of a minimum support price in the past few years,” he said.
Officials from the agriculture department claimed that the productivity rabi crops (wheat, jowar, cotton ), cultivated between October and February, will rise even more because of favourable weather conditions. “This will help drop the prices of foodgrains over the next year,” he said.
# The production of the pulses is expected to raise by 42% over last five year average to 18.89 lakh hectares against the average of 13.25 lakh tonnes. The tur dal production is expected to go up to 12.56 lakh tonnes against the average of 8.48 lakh tonnes.
# Oilseeds production is expected to go up by 47% to 60.90 lakh tonnes from five year average of 41.37 lakh tonnes.
# The production of cereals including rice, jowar, bajara has however dropped due to the excessive rains and poor support price to the productions over the last few years. Jowar and Ragi has reduced by 35 and 29%.
# Sugarcane also has witnessed huge drop of 42% over last five year average due to the continuous drought stress over the standing crop in last season.
# The enormous rise in the production of the pulses and oilseeds will help in reduction of the inflation and rates of the foodgrains.