Lok Sabha Elections 2019: With 2 alliances, 4 phases, 48 seats, Maharashtra set for poll battle - Hindustan Times
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Lok Sabha Elections 2019: With 2 alliances, 4 phases, 48 seats, Maharashtra set for poll battle

Hindustan Times, Mumbai | By
Mar 11, 2019 09:57 AM IST

Drought, caste polarisation, agrarian crisis are challenges for BJP-Sena, but saffron govt’s development-nationalism plank is in its favour

Can the warring saffron allies repeat the 2014 poll performance in Maharashtra in 2019? Or, will the Opposition, the Congress-Nationalist Congress Party that ruled the state together for 15 years, win their lost home ground and get the numbers that will help the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) at the Centre?

Maharashtra Chief Electoral Officer Ashwani Kumar addresses a press conference on Sunday.(Bhushan Koyande/HT)
Maharashtra Chief Electoral Officer Ashwani Kumar addresses a press conference on Sunday.(Bhushan Koyande/HT)

The poll battle for 48 constituencies in Maharashtra, which has the second highest number of seats after Uttar Pradesh, will be crucial for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as well as the main Opposition Congress because it will impact the outcome of the polls. It will be a direct fight between the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and UPA. In 2014, the saffron allies swept the general polls riding on the Modi wave, winning 42 of the 48 seats. The Congress was decimated to a single digit tally of 2, its ally the NCP did marginally better with 4 seats.

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Since 2014 polls, however, the Modi wave has ebbed in the state, especially in rural areas, where agrarian crisis and drought have led to questions being raised over BJP’s promises and policies. The state’s caste cauldron has also been simmering over the Maratha reservation issue, which has pitched the Other Backward Class (OBC) and Dalits against this community.

The scenario on ground is ripe for the Opposition to shore up support among disgruntled communities from minorities and Dalits to a section of the OBCs, but even as the election dates are announced, the Opposition parties haven’t been successful in cobbling up a coalition that can avoid split in their votes. The saffron alliance, which is building the nationalism narrative after the Pulwama attack and airstrikes, is likely to win dividends.

Beyond these factors, one of the keys to the 2019 electoral battle is how the alliances, which have come together owing to political compulsions, work and perform together.

 

Alliances and Readiness

“The alliance with the Sena was sealed because every seat we lose would add up to the UPA’s tally, as it is a direct fight between two alliances. We can now target 35 + seats. We may not win 42 seats like last time, but we will lose fewer seats,” said a senior BJP leader and state minister, explaining why his party bent over backwards to accommodate its ally, Sena, promising them equal seat-sharing formula and power-sharing after the Assembly polls, despite its harsh criticism of the BJP.

The equal seat-sharing formula was offered even though the BJP won 122 seats in the 2014 Assembly polls against Sena’s 63 of the total 288 seats. For Lok Sabha, the Sena will contest 23 seats, while the BJP will contest 25 seats.

“There will be niggling issues such Sena workers not wanting to work for certain BJP MPs, but the message from the top brass is to work together. A majority of MPs and MLAs realise that this is in their favour, especially after Pulwama,” said a senior Sena leader.

Moreover, the Fadnavis government has recently taken decisions such as providing sops to the disgruntled Dhangar community (10-12% of the state’s population), clearing infrastructure projects and offering sops to citizens (no property tax for flats below 500 sqft in Mumbai).

 

The BJP’s election machinery is well-oiled and ready, unlike the remaining parties who face organisational challenges – from mobilising the cadre to funding the campaign.

The Congress and NCP haven’t been able to finalise seat-sharing yet or convince smaller parties to join their coalition.

“This could be last the Lok Sabha election where Sharad Pawar will play an active role. He is keen on winning back lost ground. In case of a hung house, he could even play a key role in forming the government. In Maharashtra, we had done so badly that we can now only do better,” said a senior NCP leader.

But he admitted that getting smaller allies, especially Prakash Ambedkar, a Dalit leader and founder of the Bharipa Bahujan Mahasangh, had proved to be a hurdle. Ambedkar, the grandson of Dr Babasaheb Ambedkar, has floated Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi and tied up with the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), targeting Dalits, Muslims and a section of OBCs. He is not keen on joining the Opposition coalition.

Another NCP leader complained that the Congress leadership is yet to learn from its past mistakes. “They called Rahul Gandhi for the first campaign rally, but it didn’t have the expected impact. We had suggested that there should a joint rally, but they refused,” the NCP leader said. The party has even failed to rein in its senior leader and Opposition leader in the Assembly, Radhakrishna Vikhe-Patil, whose son is flirting with the BJP for a ticket from Ahmednagar in western Maharashtra. The NCP has so far refused to give the seat to the Congress.

“The air strike in Pakistan has sent out a message to Indians – a decisive leader like Modi should be at the helm. The issue will be on top of people’s minds,” said a senior state BJP functionary.

The strikes and ensuing Indo-Pak escalations in February this year, has given the BJP an upper hand, with the Opposition still unsure on how to tackle this.

A BJP leader linked to the RSS said, “Development with nationalism and Modi for PM is our plank. It’s difficult to contest this.”

 

Urban vs Rural divide

The Congress-NCP face their biggest challenge from the state’s urban middle class that forms the support base of the BJP. Despite demonetisation, the party won 15 of the 27 municipal corporations and expanded its urban footprint. Its focus on infrastructure for cities has helped in creating a positive perception about the government.

“The BJP-Sena has always done well in cities. After 2014, the BJP has amassed huge support base among the middle class, with their development plus soft communal poll plank. This support is unlikely to be fazed by issues such as farmer suicides, discontent among Dalits or lynchings. The nationalism narrative will favour the BJP,” said Dr Aruna Pednse, political science professor with Mumbai University.

Rural areas have faced the brunt of the ongoing agrarian crisis and it is here that the Opposition could do well. The state is currently facing a drought, second in the past four years. The government’s loan waiver worth nearly Rs 24,000 crore has not had the expected impact.

“The government has failed farmers after promising them the moon – from higher minimum support prices to double incomes. Farmers have had to face consistent fall in prices of agriculture produce, drought and demonetisation. There is a visible anger among farmers and it will help the Opposition,’’ said Vijay Jawandhia, farmers leader and expert from Vidarbha.

The drought this year that impacted 16 districts and 155 tehsils – nearly half of the state - will worsen over summer and coincide with the polls.

Unemployment is also a major issue in small towns and areas, beyond big Metros where educated youngsters from predominantly agrarian families are struggling to find jobs. Unemployment, along with agrarian crisis, will be the main campaign plank for the Opposition.

“We have toured all colleges in rural and semi-rural areas and everywhere it is the same story of graduates and even post-graduates not finding private jobs and government just not recruiting. You will not see this angst in Metros, but it is very much visible here,” said Sakshana Salgar, chief of NCP women’s youth wing.

Caste dynamics

The BJP government’s 16% reservation for the dominant Maratha community as well as the Centre’s 10% reservation for the upper caste poor will help them, but it has not gone down well with the Other Backward Class (OBC). The OBCs, who make up 50% of the state’s population, however, are fragmented into as many as 362 castes. They don’t vote en bloc, but have supported the BJP in the past. This support is now under strain.

Marathas-Kunbis, make up 32% of the state’s population, and are said to have a decisive role in as many as 75 of the 288 Assembly seats.

 

The Maratha versus OBC card will get played out, say experts, but it is difficult to predict whether it will go against one party or in favour of another. For instance, among those who get reservation, the Dhangar (shepherd) community is angry with the ruling dispensation and may go against it.

“On the face of it, one can say a section of OBCs will feel alienated from the ruling party over the Maratha reservation as well as 10% reservation for forward classes. The BJP may lose some of its traditional support. The Dhangars are definitely irked,” said political analyst Surendra Jondhale.

The Dalit votes in the state are also likely to go against the BJP in the backdrop of the Bhima-Koregaon violence, for which the government has failed to book the accused Hindutva elements so far.

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