Average temperatures in India are likely to increase by up to two degree Celsius by the 2030s as compared to the pre-industrial era, says a new study by the Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore.
The study predicts a 4% to 5% increase in rainfall across the country by the 2030s. While the increase in precipitation would be good news for a country that has large drought-prone areas, the prediction comes with a warning that much of the extra rain could come in short and ferocious spells.
This is the first time that Indian researchers have used 18 climate models to make projections. Previous climate projections were made with a single climate model. A climate model is a computer programme made up of mathematical equations that simulates the interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, and ice and predict an upward trend in the surface temperature or precipitation.
“Globally, there has been a recorded temperature rise of 0.8 degrees as compared to pre-industrial times. The scientific community agrees that temperatures must not cross two degree Celsius,” said Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi, lead author and national environmental sciences fellow at the Centre for Sustainable Technologies. “Our analysis shows that the limit is likely to get breached as early as the 2030s, which is only 25 years away.”