Less than 2 per cent of suspected swine flu patients are testing positive for the H1N1 virus. This could indicate that the first wave of swine flu is nearing its end.
“Reports of only one or two out of 100 throat swab samples we are testing are turning out positive for H1N1 virus. At its peak in September, around 25 per cent of samples were positive,” said Dr Abhay Choudhary, director of the Haffkine Institute.
Additional Municipal Commissioner Manisha Mhaiskar said: “There were no deaths in October. We are between the first and second wave now.”
Around 130 people were screened for swine flu at screening centres across the city on Tuesday and one of them was hospitalised.
Experts have predicted a more virulent wave of swine flu in the winter. Dr Choudhary said it was unlikely to be a
“The picture that is emerging shows that the second wave will not be on a high scale. The morbidity and mortality are unlikely to higher as the virus has not changed its characteristics or become more virulent and Tamiflu is very effective when given within 24 hours,” Dr Choudhary said.
Civic officials had contacted the National Institute of Virology, Pune, to discuss the possibility of the H1N1 virus undergoing a mutation as two patients who died at Nair Hospital after showing classic symptoms of swine flu had tested negative for the virus.
Mhaiskar said they had not received any response yet.