By March end, scientists will be able to predict the state’s climate for the next 60 years.
A year after the state government announced its decision to prepare a district-level action plan for climate change, scientists have developed a methodology and completed work on the climate model.
A climate model is a mathematical representation of the earth’s climate system capable of simulating its behaviour under present and altered conditions.
“The idea is to be scientifically correct with projections, which will form the basis of informed decisions with regard to risk assessments and adaptations,” said Arabinda Mishra, director, climate change division, The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) on Thursday on the sidelines of a conference on climate change. “The initial research is complete and by March end, we will provide climate scenarios for 2030, 2050 and 2070.”
Unlike other climate models that make generalised climate change projections at a global scale or for the South Asian region, TERI scientists have used a regional climate model provided by the UK meteorological office to make projections at a local level.
Using climate data from 1960 to 1990, the model will capture climate dynamics that are region specific such as atmospheric pressure, wind directions, monsoon pattern and vegetation and make projections for climate change in the state.
The team has completed analysis of the sea-level rise for the coastline and select stations along the coastline. The simulated model output generated will then be compared to data recorded by the India Meteorological Department.
“The comparison will ensure the most relevant output as far as the region is concerned. The output would also give projections for different time periods,” said Mishra.
Once projections are given, the next step will be a scientific risk and impact assessment followed by identification of coping strategies. TERI will carry out research work at six places in the state and study impact of climate change on factors such as food grain production, public health and status of water resources.
“All this will be a part of the final state action plan for climate change,” said Valsa Nair Singh, state environment secretary.