Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose findings have been controversial, will make its biggest admission this month — it was wrong on the extent of global warming by end of this century in 2007.
The IPCC fifth assessment report to be released by end of this month would claim that the global temperature will rise by 1 to 2.5 degree Celsius not by 1 to 3 degree Celsius claimed in the fourth assessment report.
The United Nations accredited IPCC’s doomsday prediction led world leaders in 2009 to sign a highly divisive Copenhagen Accord. IPCC chairman Rajendra Pachauri was criticised for interpreting data wrongly to make exaggerated prediction like Himalayan glaciers would met by 2035.
A study in Nature Climate Change by University of Victoria’s Francis Zwiers had found that climate change model had overestimated the warming by 100% in the past 20 years.
A leaked draft report of the IPCC interpreting monsoon data since 1980s says that India will have longer duration of monsoon even though the overall rainfall would remain same.
The monsoon rainfall which sets into India by end of May and continues till last week of September may extend to early October.
“Monsoon is dependent on many local and global factors. It is impossible to predict its period,” a senior government official said.
The report also says that high rainfall days like the one in Uttarakhand on June 16 would increase in the coming years. This scientific aspect of the monsoon has been co-related by domestic scientists including the ones from Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology.
BN Goswami, director of Pune based Indian Institute of Tropical Metereology said increase in extreme rainfall days and decline in rain days during the monsoon is well established. But, linking to global climate change would be speculative, he added.