The extent of havoc wreaked by the split in its votes in Karnataka has shocked BJP rank and file. Many BJP leaders now wish the party had not fallen for arguments of senior leaders LK Advani, Sushma Swaraj and Ananth Kumar who had strongly opposed a patch-up with rebel leaders and instead put up a united front.
An analysis of votes in each of the 223 constituencies has shown that BJP could have actually emerged as the single largest party if it had kept within its fold rebel BS Yeddyurappa’s KJP and BSR Congress led by former minister B Sriramalu.
If BJP, KJP and BSR Congress had been together, the Congress would have got only 88 seats --and not 121 that it won, which earned it absolute majority in the Karnataka assembly. The BJP’s tally would have gone up to 94 and not 40 it got.
The JD(S) would have bagged only 34 and not 40. That scenario could have brought BJP back in the reckoning and attempts could have been made to bring even the JD(S) together to stake claim to form government, argue BJP analysts.
The analysis shows BJP lost 14% votes but the Congress gained only 1.8%, the rest of votes went to BJP splinter parties to JD(S). Ironically, the Congress has always had one per cent or more vote compared to BJP. In 2009, the Congress got 34.8 as against BJP’s 33.9. But seat-wise, BJP got 110 as against Congress’ 80.