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Moneymaking had never been this good. The last two years has seen
such a fantastic turn of events on the stock exchange that the Indian
investor had lots to cheer about.
The adrenalin-pumping bull-run since 2005 had been such that all
believed that the time to invest in India had after come. Money
was pouring in, the markets were booming and everybody with some
money to spare had loads to gain.
Think of it - it was only in July 25, 1990 that the BSE index crossed
the 1,000 mark. Then, in June 20, 2005 the sensitive index crossed
7,000 mark. A march of 6,000 points upwards that took 15 years.
But lo and behold, since June 20, 2005 the "bull" has
been running "wild" crossing the magical 14,000 mark on
December 5, 2006! The Sensex jump-started these 7,000 points in
one and half years. Unbelievable? Well, certainly staggering much
like heady wine.
What had begun as a humble optimism had now reached euphoric levels.
Till on May 22, 2006 when the index crashed a whopping 1,100 points.
So much so that trading was suspended for a brief while.
What had led to such a fall? The brokers were quick to deduce that
the fleeing Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) was the reason.
In the months that followed the market would continue to show such
volatility, slipping few hundred points but quickly recovering only
to drop a dip later.
The second major slump that the index registered was around December
11-12, 2006 when the index slipped 977 points, a staggering 7 per
cent of investor wealth. There was blood on Dalal Street.
This continued slump in the markets was due to sustained FII pull
out, the brokers said. Issues were raised in the parliament. Some
said the release of an old 1989 CBDT circular was the reason for
the bull-run leading to a kind of price manipulation.
What would become of the small "regular" investor like
you and me? Could I trust the markets for instant riches then?
The government did rush in to allay investor fears. It said the
draft circular made no reference to FIIs, who are governed by separate
provisions of the Income Tax Act and the relevant Double Taxation
Avoidance Agreement.
Others like ASSOCHAM came forward to reassure investors. It said
this was only indicative of the fact that the Indian stock markets
are leading towards corrections and that there is no cause for panic.
It was said the current high volatility was attributed to strong
inter-linkages between global markets, brokers said FIIs seemed
to be in the process of reallocating funds from risky emerging markets
to stable developed markets.
It took loads of reassurances from the government to clear the
air. Emphasising the sound fundamentals of the Indian economy, government
said the GDP growth rate in 2005-06 was estimated at 8.1 per cent
and the growth story is expected to continue this fiscal as well.
Well, was the party over literally? True, the fears were real but
could be fought.
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