The BJP-led NDA may win 212-232 seats in the Lok Sabha elections, but fall short of an absolute majority while the tally of the ruling UPA alliance may come down to 119-139 seats , said a CNN-IBN/IBN-7 election tracker conducted in partnership with Lokniti at CSDS.
BJP is tipped for its best-ever performance with 193-213 seats, while the incumbent Congress may slide to its lowest-ever tally of 94-110 seats, the survey said.
The survey also predicts that Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) will emerge as the third-largest party in the Lok Sabha with 20-28 seats. Tamil Nadu CM J Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK is also expected to play kingmaker, with a tally of 14-20 seats. Left parties are projected to get 15-23 seats.
The survey predicts disappointment for Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party which may end up with 1-5 seats. Huge losses have also been predicted for Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), which may also get 1-5 seats.
The survey – based on responses from 9,104 voters across 138 parliamentary constituencies in six states – shows BJP PM candidate Narendra Modi leading the prime ministerial race, with 31% voters approving his candidature as against only 13% for Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.
Modi’s rating, however, has dipped by five percentage points – from 36% to 31% -- since the survey was last held in January.
UPA’s vote share is pegged at 29%, a slide of 4 percentage points since 2009, while that of the NDA is at 36%, a gain of more than 14 percentage points since 2009.
The YSR Congress and the Samajwadi Party are both projected to secure 11-17 seats, while the TDP, BJD and DMK are likely to get 10-16 seats. Mayawati’s BSP may get 8 to 14 seats.