Delhi is looking at a hung assembly with the BJP emerging the largest party with 32 seats, an ABP News-Dainik Bhaskar-Neilsen opinion poll has predicted.
With 32 seats in the 70-strong House, the BJP may get a 33% vote share, the poll said Wednesday. It gave the ruling Congress 25 seats, saying its vote share would likely drop to 26%. Contrary to predictions of a dream debut for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), it said the rookie would manage around 10 seats with 23% of the votes.
In 2008, the Congress had won 43 seats and bagged 40.46% of the votes polled; the BJP had won 24 seats with a vote share of 36.76%.
According to the poll, there are 15-20 seats where the contest is going to be very keen and the victory margin may not go beyond 2%.
“These seats could impact the final outcome. If there is pro-BJP sentiment in these constituencies, the party’s tally may go up to 40 seats and if there is pro-Congress sentiment, that party may get about 34 seats. Similarly, AAP’s tally may go up to 20 seats if sentiments are in their favour,” a statement from ABP News said.
Springing a surprise, it said the BJP’s Harsh Vardhan was the most preferred chief ministerial candidate with 34% of the votes, followed closely by AAP’s Arvind Kejriwal (33%). The survey said more than 56% feel the BJP has benefitted by naming Vardhan its CM pick. Incumbent Sheila Dikshit, on the other hand, will bear the brunt of the corruption charges swirling around the Congress-led UPA government at the centre, it predicted. The survey also said inflation was a key factor working against the Congress.
“People do recognise the work done by the Dikshit government over the last several years but rampant inflation seems to have wiped out the goodwill. People feel that the Delhi government could have controlled inflation if it had wanted to, hence the resentment,” the statement said.
According to the survey, 81% of the total 6,340 respondents felt soaring vegetable prices may prove to the deciding factor in the December 4 elections.