China’s 8.5 tonne space lab set to fall to earth by March | World News - Hindustan Times
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China’s 8.5 tonne space lab set to fall to earth by March

Hindustan Times, New Delhi | By
Jan 06, 2018 07:35 PM IST

Most likely, the space lab will largely burn up as it enters the earth’s atmosphere over the ocean.

China’s Tiangong-1 space laboratory, held up as a symbol of the country’s ambitions in space when it was launched in 2011, is out of control and set to crash to the earth by the end of March, according to a media report.

An artist’s concept of Tiangong 1.(Courtesy: China Manned Space)
An artist’s concept of Tiangong 1.(Courtesy: China Manned Space)

In the most likely scenario, the 8.5-tonne space lab will largely burn up as it enters the earth’s atmosphere over the ocean and a few parts will sink to the sea floor, CNN quoted experts as saying.

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The worst scenario would be the Tiangong-1 or “Heavenly Palace” spacecraft re-entering “over a highly populated area, and a few largest chunks hit the ground, with perhaps some minor property damage”, said Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.

“But this has never happened in the 60-year history of re-entering space debris. The chances are small,” he said.

Though the risk of the spacecraft causing damage on re-entry was described by CNN as “miniscule”, the loss of control over Tiangong-1 will impact China’s plans to emerge as a space superpower.

“They have a PR embarrassment on their hands,” McDowell said. “The actual danger is small, but it is accepted international best practice nowadays that objects that big shouldn’t be able to fall out of the sky in this manner.”

The 40-foot Tiangong-1, which was launched in Septmeber 2011, and its successor – Tiangong-2, launched in 2016 – were part of China’s plans to build and put into space a 20-tonne space station that is expected to launch around 2022.

Tiangong-1 docked with the Shenzhou-10 spaceship in 2013, and mastering this docking manoeuvre is necessary for developing a space station, experts have said. The Tiangong-1 was last used by astronauts in 2013.

“The original plan was for it to be retired soon after and sent under control into the ocean, but they were worried that its successor, Tiangong-2, might not get into orbit successfully, so they decided to keep the Tiangong-1 around as a backup,” McDowell said.

Tiangong-1 “ceased functioning” on March 16, 2016, China told the UN in May last year without giving reasons. Roger Handberg, a professor at the University of Central Florida, said China may have lost control of the lab because it ran out of fuel.

The launch of Tiangong 1 in September 2011. (Courtesy: China Manned Space)
The launch of Tiangong 1 in September 2011. (Courtesy: China Manned Space)

As of December 24, Tiangong-1 was 286.5 km up, compared with 348.3 km in March, according to an update on the space lab’s location published on the website of China’s manned space programme.

In its UN submission anticipating the spacecraft’s fall to earth, China said “most parts of Tiangong will be burned and destroyed in the process of re-entering the atmosphere”. It added, “It’s of little probability that it will cause harm to aviation or ground activities.”

One risk is that people could come into contact with remnants of the toxic hydrazine rocket fuel that might remain in the Tiangong-1. “Worst case, it hits a populated area and curious individuals decide to investigate, thereby coming into contact with the hydrazine,” said Joan Johnson-Freese, a former chair of nationals security affairs at the US Naval War College.

Space experts said the odds of debris from the Taingong-1 hitting a human are estimated to be less than one in 1 trillion. That compares with a one-in-1.4 million chance of a person in the US being struck by lightning.

Though China has said it expects Tiangong-1 to crash by late March, unpredictable weather in the outer atmosphere makes it hard to predict exactly when this will happen. Experts know roughly the latitude at which the spacecraft will land, putting places like Canada and the UK in the clear.

Space debris, including spent satellites and rocket stages, have fallen to earth in the past. In 2017, five objects weighing more than three tones made uncontrolled re-entries but all melted as they entered the atmosphere. When the US Skylab space station, which weighed 74 tonnes, re-entered the atmosphere in 1979, parts of it hit western Australia.

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