Just three weeks into his tumultuous presidency, bookmakers around the world are already taking bets on Donald Trump being impeached or resigning without completing a year in office.
The turbulence surrounding Trump, who was inaugurated on January 20, has resulted in online betting sites in the US and Britain dramatically shortening the odds on him making it through a full four-year term.
The bookmakers are also taking bets on other Trump-related issues, such as the next country that could be the target of a travel ban from the US President, the next retailer to drop his daughter Ivanka Trump, how long Sean Spicer will remain as the White House spokesman or the chances of Trump winning the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017.
Several betting sites such as Ladbrokes of Britain and Paddy Power of Ireland even have “Donald Trump specials” sections with a variety of bets on offer.
The chaos triggered by Trump’s executive orders and the controversies surrounding members of his cabinet has resulted in Ladbrokes reducing the odds on him being impeached or resigning from 3/1 to 11/10.
Jessica Bridge, a spokeswoman for Ladbrokes, told The Independent: “Trump says he’ll get the job done, but the money suggests otherwise, and punters aren’t entirely convinced the next four years will be plain sailing and he could be out of the White House via impeachment or resignation sooner rather than later.”
Following the dramatic resignation of Trump’s National Security Adviser Mike Flynn because of his contacts with Russian officials, Paddy Power is taking bets on the next member of the cabinet to quit, with the list including attorney general Jeff Sessions, treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin and defence secretary James Mattis.
Paddy Power also puts the odds of Trump being impeached at 4/1 for 2017, 9/1 for 2018, 16/1 for 2019 and 20/1 for 2020.
The site electionbettingodds.com states Trump has a 35.2% chance of being re-elected in 2020.
Betting on politics in the West has usually centred round elections but the unusual nature of the Trump presidency has resulted in some odd bets – such as Paddy Power’s bets on the president replacing the gold lift in Trump Tower (odds of 14/1) and the “Golden Shower footage” – a reference to an alleged incident mentioned in a leaked dossier involving Trump and some Russian hookers – appearing on RedTube (odds of 4/1).
Alex Donohue, Ladbrokes’ PR manager, was quoted by Politico as saying: “From a betting perspective, Donald Trump’s presidency has triggered a massive boom for these kinds of markets…With Donald Trump, everything he does, it can be turned into speculation, and that can be turned into gambling.”
Which is why PredictIt is taking bets on whether Trump will make two or three “false statements” in February.