India’s GDP will overtake that of Japan in 2028 and become the world’s third largest economy, according an end-of-the-year report on GDP in the 30 largest economies in the world by the economic consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
In a report released here on Thursday, the London-based CEBR said that China’s GDP in dollar terms will overtake the United States only in 2028, much later than most previous predictions, reflecting the continuing performance of the US as the West’s strongest economy and the slowing down of the Chinese economy.
Referring to the economic policies of Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe — dubbed ‘Abenomics’ — the report said: “India overtakes Japan in 2028 to become the world’s third largest economy. Abenomics means that Japan is likely to follow a weak currency policy for the foreseeable future which means that its GDP in dollar terms gets overtaken by India earlier than we had previously expected”.
The CEBR report says that 2013 shows only two changes in the top 20 economies — Russia overtakes recession-stricken Italy to gain 8th place and Canada overtakes India as a result of the collapse of the rupee to retake its position as the second largest economy in the Commonwealth and the 10th largest economy in the world.
By 2028, as symbols of the new world order such Nigeria, Egypt, Iraq and the Philippines will break into the top 30, the report says.
CEBR said that this year’s report is updated to take account of the likely surplus of energy and falling oil and gas prices in the 2020s, weaker commodity prices than had previously been expected and the sell-off of some emerging market currencies in the mid-2013.