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HindustanTimes Tue,16 Sep 2014

World

World population to stop growing in 2050?
PTI
London, April 05, 2013
First Published: 16:59 IST(5/4/2013)
Last Updated: 17:09 IST(5/4/2013)

The number of people living on Earth will stabilise around the middle of the century, scientists have predicted.

The findings, obtained with a model used by physicists, coincide with the United Nations's downward forecasts, Spain based Scientific Information and News Service (SINC) reported.

According to UN estimates, the world population in 2100 will be within a range between 15.8 billion people according to the highest estimates - high fertility variant - and 6.2 billion according to the lowest - low fertility variant - a figure that stands below the current 7 billion.

A mathematical model developed by a team from the Autonomous University of Madrid (UAM) and the CEU-San Pablo University, both from Spain, seems to confirm the lower estimate, in addition to a standstill and even a slight drop in the number of people on Earth by the mid-21st century.

The population prospects between 1950 and 2100 provided by the UN were used to conduct the study published in the journal 'Simulation'.

"This is a model that describes the evolution of a two-level system in which there is a probability of passing from one level to another," said Felix F Munoz, UAM researcher and co-author of the project.

The team considered Earth as a closed and finite system where the migration of people within the system has no impact and where the fundamental principle of the conservation of mass and energy is fulfilled.

"Within this general principle, the variables that limit the upper and lower zone of the system's two levels are the birth and mortality rates," Munoz said. "We started with a general situation where both the birth rate and mortality rate were high, with slow growth favouring the former," he added.

"But the mortality rate fell sharply in the second half of the 20th century as a result of advances in healthcare and increased life expectancy and it seemed that the population would grow a lot. However, the past three decades have also seen a steep drop-off in the number of children being born worldwide," he said.

The model's S-shaped sigmoid curve reflects this situation with an inflection point in the mid-1980s when the speed at which the population is growing starts to slow down until it stabilises around 2050. The data also reflect the downward trend in the UN's series of prospects.

"Overpopulation was a spectre in the 1960s and 70s but historically the UN's low fertility variant forecasts have been fulfilled," Munoz said.


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